Iowa primary: Donald Trump's unprecedented comeback

EIt is more the rule than the exception for the Republicans that the winner of the first primaries is not ultimately nominated as a presidential candidate: Donald Trump himself only came second in Iowa in 2016 with a good 24 percent, just like four years before Mitt Romney. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley may point this out. But both know that the comparisons are flawed. Because the real sensation is that Trump got more than half of the votes.

What's more, according to voter surveys, he was ahead in almost every group: among women and men, among workers and academics, in all age groups over 30 – and even among those who did not take part in the primaries as registered Republicans, but as “independents”. . The low voter turnout due to the weather didn't hurt the favorite either. Another cause for concern for Trump's competitors: Two-thirds of all voters in Iowa had already made their decision a long time ago. They want their Trump back.

America was fed up with Trump – then came the accusations

This is an unprecedented comeback for the president who was voted out in 2020. Just 14 months ago, the congressional elections seemed to have shown that the country was tired of him. A number of candidates he promoted failed with the voters. Many party strategists at the time would have wished that Trump, who was bitter about himself and his supposedly “stolen” election victory in 2020, had pushed himself less to the fore.

Of all things, the charges against the former president, who is accused of 91 crimes ranging from document falsification to election falsification, gave him a chance to regain his footing. The nostalgia with which he mourned his departure from the White House once again became, in the eyes of his supporters, an admirable fight against the suppression of their conservative way of life.

Trump speaks mostly about himself at rallies and has to take a seat in the dock in four criminal trials this year. But four out of five of his voters in Iowa said: “He fights for people like me.” De Santis and Haley only approved of this among minorities, even among their own voters.

If she had at least finished in second place, Haley would now be moving on to New Hampshire with momentum; According to surveys, where part of the Republican electorate is a little more liberal, Trump can at least feel their breath on his neck. But Iowa is dimming Haley's hopes of quickly turning the primary into a he-or-she race.

The representative voter survey there was even better for Trump than the election result: Two thirds of all pre-election participants are convinced with Trump that Biden did not win the 2020 election by legitimate means. Almost as many – including supporters of other candidates – would think nothing of voting for Trump as president despite a conviction. These numbers are similar in many states. That's why DeSantis and Haley are having such a hard time attacking Trump head-on.

And that's why Joe Biden's 2020 odyssey is no consolation for Trump's Republican competition. The Democrat lost the first three primaries four years ago, sometimes badly, but was then able to rally the party behind him. Stopping Trump was the shared desire of everyone on the left at the time, and Biden convinced his critics that he was best placed to do it.

In the Republican Party, however, the desire to drive Biden from the White House does not seem to be the overriding desire. Large parts of the base primarily want to get revenge on Trump. DeSantis and Haley have little to offer them.