Neste's comparable EBITDA shrank clearly at the end of 2023 compared to a year ago.
Liquid comparable EBITDA was slightly better than expected at the end of last year. The company reported that its comparable EBITDA was 797 million euros in October–December.
EBITDA describes the company's actual operating profit before depreciation, financing items and taxes.
According to the analysts' consensus forecast, the company's comparable EBITDA was expected to remain at EUR 784 million.
However, EBITDA shrank sharply from a year ago. At the end of 2022, there was an energy crisis, at that time Neste's comparable EBITDA was up to 894 million euros.
Neste's board of directors proposes that the company pay a dividend of 1.2 euros per share for last year. The dividend proposal is lower than expected, because according to the analysts' consensus forecast, the company was expected to propose a dividend of 1.4 euros per share.
Investors were severely disappointed with the result. The stock was down almost 12 percent about 15 minutes after the start of trading.
Liquid the total refining margin of petroleum products was 18.9 dollars per barrel in October–December. A year earlier, the corresponding margin was 23.5 dollars per barrel. As a result of the energy crisis triggered by the Russian war of aggression, the margin was up to 30 dollars per barrel in 2022.
The comparable sales margin of the company's renewable products was 813 dollars per ton. A year earlier, the comparable sales margin for renewable products remained at USD 755 per ton.
Managing director Matti Lehmus geopolitical tensions and high inflation affected last year. Lehmus says in the release that the market environment was most favorable in July–September. Towards the end of the year, the market weakened, especially for renewable products.
Liquid estimates that the total sales volume of renewable products will increase to approximately 4.4 million tons this year. Last year, the sales volumes of renewable diesel and renewable aviation fuel totaled approximately 3.3 million tons.
The sales volume of renewable aviation fuel is expected to be around 0.5–1.0 million tons this year. Last year, around 843,000 tons of renewable diesel and renewable jet fuel were sold.
Neste estimates that the planned major shutdown of the Porvoo refinery in the second quarter of the year will decrease the total sales volume of petroleum products this year compared to last year.
At the same time, the total refining margin of oil products is also expected to be lower than last year.
The estimated investment of the shutdown is EUR 390 million, and the impact on comparable EBITDA is approximately EUR 190 million in oil products and approximately EUR 40 million in renewable products.
According to Neste, the two-day strike at the beginning of February affected customer deliveries at the Porvoo refinery. The strike affected production for 5–7 days.
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