Interest rates | The one-year euribor jumped considerably higher – “The central banks' message is starting to get through”

One-year euribor was quoted on Thursday at 3.660 percent, i.e. 0.064 percentage points higher than on Wednesday.

Popular the reference interest rate for mortgages, the twelve-month euribor, moved considerably higher on Thursday.

One-year euribor was quoted on Thursday at 3.660 percent, i.e. 0.064 percentage points higher than on Wednesday.

Nordea's chief analyst by Jan von Gerich According to

“The messages from the central bankers that there are no quick interest rate cuts are finally getting through. At the latest in the summer [Euroopan keskuspankin] However, the ECB's interest rate cuts will start,” von Gerich writes in the message service in X.

The twelve-month euribor has been at its highest this year before Thursday at 3.654 percent.

The market expectations of a rapid pace of interest rate cuts took a hit on Wednesday, when the ECB's president Christine Lagarde said in an interview with financial media Bloomberg that the central bank will probably lower its key interest rates only in the summer.

In addition to Lagarde, many other ECB monetary policy decision makers have also verbally tried to curb the market's interest rate cut expectations in recent days.

For example, the head of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank Joachim Nagel and the influential chief economist of the ECB Philip Lane have signaled that it is still too early to think about lowering interest rates.

Fair expected on Thursday afternoon that the one-year euribor will drop to around 2.5 percent a year from now. As recently as the end of December, the one-year Euribor was expected to reach around 2.2 percent by the end of December this year.

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The market's assessments of interest rates have long been excessively optimistic from the perspective of mortgage borrowers. For example, a year ago, the market expected the one-year Euribor to be around 3 percent, i.e. almost 0.7 percentage points lower than it actually was.

On Thursday, the 3-month euribor, which increased in popularity, jumped close to 4 percent, i.e. to 3.97 percent. Compared to Wednesday, it rose even more than the euribor of the year.


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