Portugal elections, Montenegro's centre-right wins: socialist rule broken
The right is still advancing in Europe. This time also at latitudes unknown to it, at least in recent times. The elections in Portugal they have often been a “no contest” for the right, and above all for the radical and sovereignist right, which for a long time remained a minority phenomenon even when it continued to emerge in other European countries. The turning point came in the elections on Sunday 10 Marchat the end of which the leader of the centre-right Democratic Alliance, Luis Montenegroclaimed victory.
With 99% of the votes counted on Sunday, the Democratic Alliance – an electoral platform composed of the large Social Democratic Party (PSD) and two smaller conservative parties – and the socialist party (PS) they gave rise to a tight head-to-head with a very thin advantage of votes in favor of the centre-right: 29.49% for the centre-right against 28.66% for the centre-left. The candidate of the Socialist Party, Pedro Nuno Santosadmitted defeat given that the center-right has the possibility of forming a broader coalition to govern.
“I think the Portuguese people also said that it is necessary that political parties, especially those with parliamentary representation, give greater priority to dialogue and consultation between leaders and parties,” Montenegro said, after Nuno Santos granted him victory in the face of close results. “I have always said that winning the election would have meant having one more vote than any other candidate, and only in these circumstances would I have agreed to become prime minister,” he said in a speech to party supporters shortly after midnight.
Yesterday's vote was triggered by the resignation of the socialist prime minister António Costa, which occurred in November after the launch of an investigation into alleged illegalities in his administration's management of large green investment projects. Even more surprising than a result deeply related to the scandal that led to Costa's early resignation, after several years at the helm of Portugal, is theexploits of the radical right which comes in third place.
Portugal elections, exploits of Chega's radical right
The result of the polls has in fact marked a huge surge for the Chegafounded five years ago by André Venturaa former football television commentator who was once a rising star of the PSD. The party made its debut in the 2019 elections, garnering 1.3% of the vote and winning its first deputy in Portugal's 230-seat assembly. Three years later, it won 7.2% of the vote and 12 seats. This time Chega even reached 18% and almost quadrupled his seats, going from 12 to 46.
In its victory speech, Montenegro reiterated that he has no intention of allying himself with Chega. “I will keep my word,” he said, after during the election campaign he defined Ventura's opinions as “often xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic.” Yet, according to many analyses, it is highly probable that Montenegro will now suffer considerable pressure from its own party to reach an agreement with Ventura's party to form the majority.
The least unlikely hypothesis could be that of external support, given that even with the support of the smallest Liberal Initiative centre-right (fourth council with around 5%), any potential minority government led by the Democratic Alliance should rely on Chega's support to pass laws. But this is a hypothesis that needs to be constructed and verified. Thereby, Montenegro would hand over the stability of its executive to Ventura. And Ventura himself could decide that, without a formal alliance, it might be better to remain in the opposition to continue to grow and steal consensus from the traditional parties according to a pattern also seen in several other European countries.
Then there is the variant of the Portuguese president. According to the newspaper Expresso, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa would have somehow broken the convention of presidential neutrality by stating that will do everything possible to prevent Chega to reach office. He has said he will reject any move to replace Montenegro as prime minister if the right wins a majority. Ventura replied: “In Portugal it is not the President of the Republic who chooses the government, but the voters.”
Salvini in Ventura: “Alone against everyone”. The maneuvers in view of the European Championships
A dynamic that also affects the comment of Matteo Salviniwho immediately complimented Ventura by showing a sort of “common destiny” between Chega and Lega: “Extraordinary result, alone against everyone“. In recent hours, many other leaders of the European far right have also rushed to toast Chega's success and offer their support and solidarity.
The result of the elections in Portugal also offers interesting insights from a European perspective. With the June elections looming, the victory of the centre-right offers more fuel to the EPP, but so does Chega's success with the sovereignist formationwhich Salvini seems intent on strengthening also in a mirror game of indirect internal competition with the maneuvers of Giorgia Meloniever closer to Ursula von der Leyen as demonstrated by the next joint trip to Egypt.
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