HS Interview | It is unthinkable that Russia would permanently take over the territories it has occupied in recent months, says EU influencer Stefano Sannino

For a long time a diplomat of the line, an experienced speaker, knowledgeable and ready to speak. But together face the interview Stefano Sannino gets confused and has to search for his thoughts.

“The fact that I have to think about the answer, not right…”

The interview deals with the situation in Europe and the world. The question was whether there is perhaps a topic that causes him joy and hope.

The Secretary General of the European External Action Service, Sannino, who visited Finland this week, can hardly squeeze out an answer: because there are enough threats and challenges, it forces many countries to cooperate more than before.

Sannin’s according to the EU has remained commendably united since Russia launched its major attack on Ukraine last February. But there is enough work, because Russia shows no signs of ending its aggression.

If it were up to the EU, peace would come to Ukraine immediately. But according to Sannino, there is currently no meaningful process that could end the war through negotiations. At least Sannino doesn’t seem to be aware of that.

According to him, it is impossible to think that Russia would be rewarded in any way for attacking Ukraine and that it would gain permanent control of the territories it has captured in recent months.

“Aggression must not be rewarded. If one country seizes territories from another and then we just say no when we want peace and this has to stop, then we have another frozen conflict on our hands. Peace, yes, but just peace [Ukrainalle]”, Sannino says.

Sannin’s according to which the EU must stand unwaveringly in support of Ukraine. The longer the war continues, the greater the concern that the member states’ own priorities will begin to outweigh the suffering of the Ukrainians.

This is how the EU’s high representative for external relations described the situation in Europe Josep Borrell in a recent one in his blog post: “Europe is on its way to the eye of the perfect storm: energy prices will rise, economic growth will slow down and winter will come. The Kremlin uses energy as a political weapon. We have to prepare for possible gas cuts.”

Spain’s Borrell is a sort of EU foreign minister, while Sannino leads reminiscent of Himmel daily operations of the foreign affairs administration and the diplomatic corps of the Union.

General Secretary Sannino says that there are differences of opinion in the EU countries regarding how strongly the Russian threat is perceived. Examples that speak volumes about this are Finland’s and Sweden’s attempts to become NATO members.

In some countries, such as Italy, the war does not feel so close, concrete or unambiguous. When from the Italians was asked recently, whom they consider the main culprit of the war in Ukraine, 56 percent named Russia. In Finland, 90 percent of the people considered Russia to be the main culprit.

Read more: The Romans tell why some Italians blame the war in Ukraine on Western countries

In Sannino’s home country of Italy, elections will be held at the end of September, which may lead the nationalist and right-wing populist, by Giorgia Meloni led by the Italian Brothers party to victory.

You can try it, but the Brussels diplomat refuses to say anything about the election situation in his home country.

“We have a golden rule in the EU that we do not comment on the internal political situations of the member countries.”

And of course you don’t have an opinion on the matter?

Sannino laughs, and a little nervousness can be deduced from the laughter.

The possibility of a right-wing government coming to power has raised concerns that Italy would soften its attitude towards Russia and its president to Vladimir Putin. In 2018, Meloni congratulated Putin on his election victory, when Putin became president of his country for the fourth time.

However, this year Meloni has made statements according to which his government would be strict with Russia and strongly support Ukraine. He stated this week in an interview with the Reuters news agency that Italy will not be a “weak link” on the Western front.

Although Russia seems to continue its war fiercely and its life quite normally, Sannino believes that the sanctions of the EU and other western countries have significantly disciplined the country.

According to him, Russia’s industrial production is falling across the board, as factories suffer from a lack of spare parts caused by sanctions, among other things. EU countries have managed to reduce their energy dependence on Russia surprisingly quickly, of their own volition – and had to because of Russia’s actions. Before last February, about 40 percent of the gas bought by EU countries came from Russia, while now the share is about 20 percent.

However, due to the noticeable increase in the price of gas, Russia’s income streams have not yet depleted as hoped. Sannino still predicts that Russia will have to sell gas at a reduced price in the near future. This is what it has already started to do with oil.

So Russia is slowly getting poorer, which should affect the ability of its war machine to operate in Ukraine.

European with the war in Ukraine, the union has become a place of greater reflection on how Europeans fare in brutal international competition and politics. In addition to the fact that energy dependence on Russia has proven dangerous, the continent is in many ways at the mercy of China’s economic power.

According to Sannino, the EU now needs to find ways to reduce dependence on China, when it comes to, for example, the acquisition of rare earth metals needed by high-tech companies. The EU also aims to significantly increase its own production of batteries and microchips.

“Throughout the EU, we are thinking very carefully and working to reduce our dependencies and vulnerabilities. – – -We strive to create conditions so that we do not become possible targets of extortion.”