HS interview | Iran keeps Israel in suspense: “This is psychological warfare,” says the ambassador

In July breaths were held around the world and eyes turned firmly to Tehran, Iran.

In the same month, the leader of the extremist organization Hamas Ismail Haniyeh was killed in the capital while he was visiting president by Masud Pezeškian at the inauguration.

Tensions in the region have grown in other areas as well.

Last Monday, Syrian media reported, according to AFP, that at least 16 people were killed and at least 36 wounded in Israeli airstrikes in the Hama region.

Director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP that the strike targeted a research center used by Iranian experts to develop missiles and drones.

However, Iran’s retaliatory strike has not been heard or seen. Pledge of attack has become part of the psychological warfare against Israel.

“It is hard to believe that they would not avenge Haniyeh’s death. On the other hand, this is all psychological warfare. Let’s keep Israel in suspense. Everyone is expecting that at some point there will be a revenge attack,” says the Finnish ambassador to Lebanon Anne Meskanen.

Meskanen was visiting Helsinki at the end of August for ambassador days.

Retaliation according to Mesakinen, several factors affect the preparation and the possibility.

America’s increased military presence in the Middle East, behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts, Gaza ceasefire talks and the election of Iran’s reformist President Pezeshkian all play a part in Tehran’s calculations.

Delaying the retaliatory strike also means that the Israeli security authorities will still have to use, for example, their intelligence resources to monitor Iran. These are partly away from other tasks.

According to Meskanen, Iran also does not want to lose the deterrent effect maintained by Hezbollah, which could disappear if Israel attacked with full force.

This is also why the risk of a major regional war flaring up is small, although not completely excluded.

Of some According to Meskanen, there is a feeling among Hezbollah supporters who live and live in southern Lebanon that the organization should have played harder from the beginning. Hundreds of Hezbollah fighters and civilians have died in southern Lebanon. According to Meskanen, all this weighs heavily on the mind of an ordinary supporter.

“The background is that they have to think about their own credibility. Of course, the Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian regime also have to think about their own credibility.”

Of course, Hezbollah’s armed wing has continued its small-scale attacks against Israel. For example, on Sunday it hit the town of Kirjat Shmona in northern Israel with rockets.

According to the organization, the attack was a response to Saturday’s Israeli attack, which targeted the village of Frouni, and which, according to the Lebanese authorities, killed three and wounded two rescue workers.

The inaction of Lebanon’s central government stems from the 15-year civil war and the economic crisis that began in 2019.

The power vacuum has increased the opportunities for non-state actors such as Hezbollah to take over Lebanon.

important is, according to Meskanen, to remember to separate the two different wings of Hezbollah. Its political wing is a legal actor in Lebanon and political relations can be maintained with it and discussions can be held at different levels. In turn, the European Union has classified Hezbollah’s armed wing as a terrorist organization.

Hezbollah also offers many in Lebanon serviceswhich the weak and dysfunctional central administration is unable to provide. Such as healthcare, schools and infrastructure.

However, services are not available for everyone, and attention is especially focused on Palestinians living in refugee camps. Some Palestinians have lived in Lebanon for decades, ever since the 1948 war.

Most of them have not even been granted civil rights, although some Christian Palestinians are an exception.

Rights nor is it expected, according to Mesanen, because no political actor wants to be profiled as a promoter of Palestini
an issues in Lebanon.

“I would say that there is quite a consensus in Lebanon that they should not be given any citizenship rights.”

However, according to Meskanen, the war in Gaza has increased the feeling of solidarity towards the Palestinians in Lebanon as well.

“At the same time, the mutual skirmishes between different factions in the camps have been forgotten for the time being. On the other hand, the fear is that if and when a cease-fire is concluded in Gaza, the violence will start again.”

of Lebanon Meskanen considers the future in terms of increasing the stability of the southern part of the country. This would be facilitated by, among other things, an agreement with Israel on the land border of the states and an increase in the presence of the Lebanese armed forces in the south.

“Problems go back and forth [Libanonin] from the post-civil war period when Hezbollah’s weapons were not tampered with. It is something that is very difficult to tackle now. It is clear that Hezbollah will not be disarmed by force. Nobody does that. It would lead to war.”

One option is also that Hezbollah members would be incorporated into the Lebanese armed forces.

“Reducing the power and importance of Hezbollah is essentially related to a more permanent pacification of the south than is currently the case. In addition to the land border agreement, stability would be created by having, for example, 10,000 professional soldiers of the Lebanese army instead of 2,000 very poorly equipped and motivated. This is what Hezbollah accepts.”

Middle East however, Gaza is at the center of the tense situation.

Hezbollah has stated that when the guns fall silent in Gaza, they also stop in South Lebanon. The night before Tuesday, Israel struck a humanitarian area in Gaza, and according to the Gaza health authorities, at least 19 people were killed in the attack.

However, Meskanen, who describes himself as a pragmatist, sees a prolonged war of attrition as a more likely option than a ceasefire.

“I feel that there really was a window of opportunity in the early summer. Since then, Israel has set new conditions for the ceasefire negotiations.”

“Of course, it does not have a positive effect that the leaders of the other side are eliminated. With this wound, it is very difficult for me to believe in a positive and quick solution, which of course I hope for.”

According to Mesanen, the probability of a war of attrition is increased by the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu the desire to stay in power. The prime minister’s career will probably end if and when the Gaza ceasefire is reached.

At the same time, according to Meskanen, Israel wants to wait for the American elections in November.

“It may also be in their interests that [Donald] Trump win the election. One can imagine that then Israel will have an even freer hand to act.”