It is clear that the events of the last few days in Sweden will not help or speed up Finland’s and Sweden’s path to NATO. The question is how serious a crisis they cause, writes HS’s NATO correspondent Elina Kervinen.
Danish a far-right politician burned the Muslim holy book Koran in Stockholm.
flag of Sweden burned as a result at a demonstration in Istanbul.
In Batman, southeastern Turkey, thousands demonstrated, some brandishing Korans.
That’s a very short summary of the new upheaval in the relations between Sweden and Turkey over the weekend.
Turkey the defense minister canceled also the Swedish defense minister’s visit to Turkey, and the Turkish foreign minister got angry in the media.
The previous clash in which the activists hanged the Turkish president was also fresh in my mind Recep Tayyip Erdoğan performing puppet standing in front of the city hall in Stockholm.
The freshest after the twists and turns, the relations between Sweden and Turkey can be said to have quickly turned into a very explosive state at a tender moment, while the NATO process was still in progress.
Along with Hungary, Turkey is one of the only NATO member countries that has not yet ratified the membership of Finland and Sweden.
It should be fine, that the cases in Sweden now do not help or speed up Turkey’s ratification. The question is how serious a crisis they cause.
It didn’t look very good on Sunday, when it was Erdoğan’s influential advisor who got angry. Fahrett’s Altun.
He compared For Dagens Nyheter in an email interview he gave, from the burning of the Koran in Stockholm to the Kristallnacht events in Nazi Germany. Kristallnacht was a wave of violence against Jews on a November night in 1938.
As for NATO matters, Altun reminded that Greece delayed Macedonia’s path to NATO for years because of the country’s name, and Macedonia had to change it to become a member.
Over here by NATO, we have learned that President Erdoğan is quite unpredictable.
That’s why it’s largely a matter of guesswork how strong the impact of the ever-worsening spat between Sweden and Turkey can have in the end.
Director of the Institute of Turkish Studies at Stockholm University Paul T. Levin estimate on Sunday for the Financial Timesthat if Erdoğan stays in power, ratification could be a matter of years, not months – unless other NATO members step in, with all possible carrots to help.
Sweden’s politicians are now balancing a very difficult balance when trying to keep the NATO train moving and Turkey friendly.
The limits of freedom of speech are very broad in Sweden, as in Finland, and the threshold for preventing demonstrations is very high. This is despite the fact that, for example, burning the Koran is an act that is repugnant and widely offensive.
At the same time, the home audience in Sweden is increasingly critical of the fact that the government should not humble itself in front of Turkey when it repeatedly gets angry.
Prime minister Ulf Kristersson formulated after the Koran incident on Twitter that free speech is a fundamental part of democracy. What is legal is not necessarily appropriate, he continued, condemning the burning of the Koran as a deeply disrespectful act.
Of everything despite the upheaval, it is good to remember that the protests and Turkey’s anger about them are only one piece of the big NATO puzzle and the background of Turkey’s delay.
Other pieces may be, for example, Erdoğan’s domestic political aspirations and Turkey’s desire to acquire fighter jets from the United States. The fires can also include, for example, Turkey’s desire to keep the criticism of its allies at bay if it launches a new ground offensive in northern Syria that it has been hiding.
Read more: US expert: Turkey will hardly get fighter jets if the NATO delay does not end
Read more: The US-Turkey fighter jet trade is entwined in a curly tangle, of which Finland’s NATO membership is a part
Getting angry at the protests can now also be seen as quite suitable for Erdoğan, as it can give the home audience and supporters a reason to continue delaying NATO, if Erdoğan wants to do so.
Question I wonder if the delay would have been extended even without the recent events.
For some time now, experts have assumed that Finland’s and Sweden’s applications will not advance in Turkey before the country’s elections, which have now been confirmed to be held already in mid-May.
At last, now it can be considered quite clear.
Read more: Haavisto saw two time windows for Turkey’s NATO ratification, the Turkish expert believes later
Next, let’s think about how the relations between Turkey and Sweden will freeze, when similar cases will most likely happen and Turkey will get angry about them again.
And how should Finland react in that case?
Foreign minister Pekka Haavisto (green) assured last on Sunday for STTthat the ratification of Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO memberships at the same time is important.
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