HS Analysis | Pakistan is holding elections on Thursday, and it's going to be bloody again

Down it is a celebration of democracy. There are as many as 128 million eligible voters. They will decide in parliamentary elections on Thursday who will lead the nuclear-armed nation of 240 million people for the next five years.

In practice, Pakistan's politics is chaotic and violent. On Wednesday, at least 24 people were killed in two bomb attacks on electoral offices in Balochistan province.

Also the election itself is once again a complete mess. And once again, the favorite is Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz Sharif.

Sharif, 74, is the world champion of political comebacks, still Richard Nixon and Silvio Berlusconi tougher drain pan. Sharif has already been sent from the Prime Minister's Palace to prison or exile three times, but he has always returned.

That's what he probably does now, since his main opponent is in prison.

Previous prime minister Imran Khan again was sentenced last week in a special court to 10-14 years in prison. His supporters are threatening to avenge Khan's treatment at the ballot box by voting for his party.

It seems difficult. Many believe the authorities are trying to oust Khan's former party PTI from power. Its candidates have been imprisoned and threatened. Even the party's emblem, the cricket bat, is banned.

The party persistently plays cat and mouse with the authorities. When the charismatic Khan is unable to speak from prison, an artificial intelligence is made to deliver the speeches he wrote in prison.

Supporters of Nawaz Sharif on the streets of Lahore in 2013, when Sharif returned for a third term as Prime Minister of Pakistan. Picture: Kaisa Rautaheimo

Pakistan is certainly not a model country of democracy, but not exactly the most basic either. In the US-based Freedom House's democracy index, Pakistan scored 22 out of 100. Poor scores, but better than, say, Turkey or Thailand.

Pakistan holds regular elections, but the real ruler is the country's armed forces. As Prime Minister, Khan lost the confidence of Parliament. The essential thing is that after that he also lost the trust of the armed forces.

The armed forces' tool is the judicial system, which treats politicians who have fallen out of favor from office, for example on the basis of abuse of power or corruption.

There is usually a cover for both charges. The ousted leader will be put in prison unless he can escape the country.

Truck painter Sohail Ghuri painted a portrait of former Prime Minister Imran Khan at his workshop in Peshawar in November 2023. Picture: FAYAZ AZIZ / Reuters

Very the likely winner on Thursday will be Sharif, who will strike some kind of power-sharing deal with the Pakistan People's Party Bilawal Bhutto Zardari with.

Pakistan's politics is dynastic, i.e. run by certain powerful families. Bhutto Zardari's mother was the prime minister Benazir Bhutto, who was murdered in 2007; his father, on the other hand, was president and prime minister Zulfikar Bhutto Zardariwho was executed in 1977.

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Pakistan People's Party leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari addressed his supporters on Tuesday in Larkana, Sindh province, Pakistan. Picture: PPI / ZUMA

Game will never end, no matter who wins the election.

Regardless of the election result, PTI supporters will take to the streets, and riots are very possible. Assassinations and bombings continue – last year around a thousand people lost their lives as a result of political violence.

Khan is watching the action from prison, but not necessarily until the end of his sentence.

In Pakistan's 76-year history, no prime minister has ruled until the end of his five-year term. The appellate courts may well reverse their decision and call Khan king. Nothing is permanent in Pakistani politics except armed forces and death.