According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Venezuelan oil production It reached its best level since February 2019 in January, reaching 796,000 barrels per day (bpd).
(Also read: Venezuela: suspension of gold license comes into force after reimposition of sanctions)
But the data provided by the Venezuelan Government indicate that production was higher, reaching 840,000 barrels. Regardless of the numbers, both show a significant increase that is due to one main reason: the sanctions relief granted by the United States in October.
In 2019 was the last time that the Caribbean country reported significant production, reaching 1,480,000 barrels per day, which later fell to 768,000 bpd.
“Will this increase in production be sustainable and could we reach one million barrels per day in December?” asks economist Luis Oliveros, taking into account that there is a decisive factor: the possible reimposition of measures by the Joe Biden administration following Caracas' decision to maintain the disqualification against opposition candidate María Corina Machado.
“What happens in April will be fundamental, but everything indicates, given the events of recent days, that the scenario is not optimistic”says Oliveros.
Caracas and Washington have accused each other of not complying with the Barbados agreements signed between Chavismo and the opposition on October 17, in which the administration of Nicolás Maduro promised to provide political guarantees. Biden administration officials believe that this aspect has not been met and threaten to reimpose sanctions that were eased in 2023.
(Also read:María Corina Machado issues warning for elections in Venezuela)
This could set the industry back. The year 2023 closed with 783,000 barrels per day, which represents an increase of 67,000 barrels over the 2022 average, according to the Ministry of Petroleum.
For OPEC, last year Venezuela closed with 751,000 barrels per day – 32,000 bpd below the official figure – but still with a slight increase of 67,000 bpd.
About crude oil prices
Venezuelan crude oil, known as Merey, was at $66.50 per barrel in January, recovering by 7.71 percent. However, Of the OPEC member countries, Venezuelan oil is the cheapest.
Together with Congo and Gabon, Venezuela is the Opec country with the lowest productivity, since it currently only has one active drilling platform, unlike the 60 that the Middle East has, despite having the same capacity.
Of the almost 800,000 barrels per day, 200,000 are extracted from the Lake Maracaibo basin and the mainland, in the state of Zulia.right where Chevron, the American company that has recently been granted permits, is operating.
The last time Venezuela reached 3,000,000 barrels per day was before Hugo Chávez came to power. But the oil bonanza did not end with Chávez in power, as a barrel exceeded $100.
But the scenario does not seem favorable. Just this Tuesday, the 43A license imposed by the United States Government to Venezuela came into operation, that revokes 43, that is, from this Wednesday Minerven (gold company) and CVG will not be able to market or carry out financial operations inside or outside the country.
This measure was taken after the Venezuelan justice system ratified the disqualification measure against María Corina Machado.According to data from the Venezuelan parliament, there are 39 vessels for the transfer of crude oil and other derivatives that cannot be mobilized due to sanctions.
ANA MARÍA RODRÍGUEZ BRAZÓN
TIME CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
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