The Wagner revolt in Russia is apparently over after one day. Putin is said to have thanked the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko for this.
Minsk/Moscow – The uprising of the Wagner group in the Ukraine war ended after one day: Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozchin was presumably on his way to Belarus on Sunday night, his units had been ordered to retreat. That evening the Kremlin left no doubt as to who was to thank for the withdrawal Wagner troops and negotiating an agreement with Prigozhin belongs to: Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko.
The news first came from Belarus. The Belarusian News Agency Belta let it be known on Saturday evening that Wladimir Putin and Lukashenko on the phone around 9 p.m.: “The President of Belarus informed the President of Russia in detail about the results of the negotiations with the leader of the Wagner Group. The President of Russia (…) thanked his Belarusian colleague for the work done.” Prigozhin himself had asked his mercenaries to withdraw on Saturday – but according to the think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a statement did not mention that Lukashenko was involved in an agreement. Details, schedule and results were therefore not clear until Sunday morning – it was also difficult to assess who would stick to the agreements and how intensively.
After the Wagner revolt: How Lukashenko could convert his support for the Kremlin
The ISW is now analyzing that Lukashenko could use the negotiated deal to his advantage. “That it now appears that Belarusian President Lukashenko is playing a direct role in stopping a military advance on Moscow is humiliating for Putin and may have provided Lukashenko with other advantages,” writes the ISW.
On Saturday, the day of the Wagner revolt, Putin informed Lukashenko about the situation. According to the ISW, this could indicate that “Putin turned to Lukashenko to solve the armed uprising, although the Belarusian government often uses interactions with the Kremlin to its advantage.”
Lukashenko after the Wagner uprising: These could be the goals of the Belarusian ruler
According to the ISW, Saturday’s news suggests that Lukashenko “has an unspecified influence on Prigozhin” – among other things, there could be a connection with the elections in Belarus in August 2020. According to the ISW, Lukashenko could now pay for his support: “Lukashenko will probably try to use the de-escalation of the armed uprising to advance his goals,” writes the ISW.
These goals could therefore include “the formalization of the union state Russia– to delay Belarus or to prevent Putin from deploying Belarusian armed forces in Ukraine.” As late as early 2023, there had been speculation as to whether the Belarusian army could be mobilized for the Ukraine war. The USA had analyzed in June that Lukashenko is giving more and more control to Russia. (Kathrin Reikowski)
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