North Korea intends to revise the moratorium on testing of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles, which the country has adhered to since 2017. This follows from a statement by the KCNA news agency, published shortly after the US imposed new sanctions against the DPRK.. According to the expert community, the threat became part of Pyongyang’s systematic campaign of pressure on Washington in order to bring the Americans to the negotiating table. The chances of success, however, are small, as is the likelihood that in the coming months North Korea will indeed resume ICBM testing, let alone conduct a nuclear test., experts say.
direct hint
“The hostile policies and military threats of the United States have reached a dangerous point that can no longer be overlooked, despite our sincere efforts to maintain the general trend of easing tensions.” – under this already traditionally accusatory sauce, the official North Korean news agency KCNA announced on January 20 a new decision by the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea to review “confidence-building measures that we have taken on our own initiative” and to study the feasibility of resuming “all temporarily suspended activities” .
Of course the words “missiles” and “nuclear weapons” were never mentioned in the decision of the North Korean party members. But the expert community unanimously saw in the ornate formulations a direct hint of Pyongyang’s intention to abandon the moratorium on nuclear weapons tests. and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which the DPRK has not conducted since 2017.
The country announced such a moratorium in April 2018, and this gesture of goodwill largely paved the way for a whole series of high-ranking diplomatic interactions between the DPRK with the Republic of Korea and the United States. In early 2019, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un benevolently reaffirmed his commitment to “no longer develop, test, use or proliferate nuclear weapons” and “move towards full denuclearization.”
But after the failed Hanoi summit of Kim Jong-un and current former head of the White House Donald Trump in February 2019, with which the DPRK vainly pinned hopes for a partial easing of sanctions, the mood of the North Koreans changed dramatically. Toward the end of that year, Comrade Kim was already saying that the DPRK had no reason to observe a moratorium on nuclear tests and testing of long-range missiles. And then Pyongyang officially announced the transition to the next stage of development and testing of new ICBMs along with other high-tech weapons as part of its new five-year plan. In particular, the military modernization program outlined by the DPRK in January 2021 included solid-propellant and multi-warhead ICBMs.
Since last September, the DPRK has noticeably intensified not only in terms of statements, but also in terms of missile tests. First, Pyongyang tested a long-range cruise missile, and then proceeded to launch hypersonic missiles. And on January 18, North Korea carried out its fourth missile test since the beginning of this year..
Not now
The announcement of the resumption of “all temporarily suspended activities” was another logical step in the DPRK’s campaign to gradually increase pressure on Americans. The goal is to draw attention to the forgotten North Korea, to force the United States to sit down at the negotiating table and force them to agree to the lifting or easing of sanctions adopted in 2017. This opinion was expressed to Izvestia by Andrey Lankov, a professor at the South Korean Kukmin University in Seoul.
Really, in the past year, the administration of President Joe Biden has not been very interested in affairs on the Korean Peninsula, remembering Pyongyang only the other day. And even then, not in the way he would like. Last week, the US imposed new sanctions on five North Koreans and one North Korean company.involved, according to the States, in the development of the ballistic missile program. Moreover, Washington has proposed to respond to a series of recent missile launches by North Korea with sanctions at the UN level. By the way, the threat to withdraw from the moratorium was made from Pyongyang a few hours before the meeting of the UN Security Council, dedicated to the topic of restrictive measures against the DPRK.
Most Asian experts have taken the news from North Korea with concern. For example, an expert from the Seoul University of North Korean Studies, Professor Yang Mu-jin, who was widely quoted by many Western media, suggested that North Korea may test long-range missiles or other powerful weapons on Kim Jong Il’s 80th birthday on February 16 or Kim Il Sung’s 110th birthday on April 15. As you know, the birthdays of two past leaders of the DPRK – the father and grandfather of the current Kim – are considered the most important national dates in the country. “AND the launch of an ICBM could serve as a huge celebratory fireworks display”, the South Korean expert suggested.
The expectations of the Russian Korean scholar turned out to be much less gloomy.
— The risk of nuclear testing is close to zero. In the current situation, the DPRK is extremely dependent on China, which is very disapproving of the entire North Korean nuclear program.. The chances that an ICBM will be launched in the near future are quite real, but I would rate them as small, the expert told Izvestia.
According to him, the coronavirus epidemic is playing against such a development of events, which has made the DPRK extremely dependent on China, which is not at all interested in any aggravation at its borders. In addition, the presidential elections in South Korea, scheduled for March 2022, are not in favor of testing in the near future. Any aggravation around North Korea, which the outgoing President Moon Jae-in has been trying to come to terms with all his term, will immediately increase the chances of winning in the ROK by candidates from the right-wing pro-American opposition opposed to contacts and assistance to the northern neighbor.
– A given that South Korea is a walking ATM for North Korea, this ATM will jam if the right opposition wins, and Pyongyang would not want this– summed up Andrey Lankov.
It is noteworthy that the DPRK authorities have previously threatened to withdraw from the self-proclaimed moratorium on launching intercontinental ballistic missiles and conducting nuclear tests. But so far they have not moved from words to deeds. According to the expert, this does not mean that the moratorium will be observed forever: you can put “two to one or even three to one, that we will see the launch, but in a couple of years.”
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