The ‘butcher of Syria’ or ‘General Armageddon’, Sergei Surovikin, former commander of the troops deployed in Ukraine, is presumably under suspicion by the Russian authorities for his prior knowledge of the Wagner Group chief’s plans to mutiny against the Kremlin. The security services would also investigate whether other military commanders were aware of Evgueni Prigozhin’s plans, which would raise the theory that the mercenary leader rebelled solely for personal reasons to the hypothesis of a full-fledged uprising, finally frustrated by lack of support.
56-year-old Surovikin is a heavyweight in the Russian military organization chart, despite his disagreements with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The president himself, Vladimir Putin, entrusted him with the coordination on the ground of the entire invasion last October, although in January he decided to take over from him by General Valery Gerasimov expeditiously.
A war hero for his ruthless actions in Syria and Chechnya, ‘General Armageddon’ this winter became the mastermind of the plan to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which blocked a good part of the Kiev army’s military operations and left Hundreds of thousands of civilians exposed to lethal cold. However, he lost much of that “credit” when he was forced to withdraw the army from the conquered Kherson square under Ukrainian pressure and failed to meet the Kremlin’s expectations of progress in the former republic. Transferred back to Moscow, he became the vice-commander of the invasion.
Prigozhin was the biggest critic, taking over from his friend and former mentor at the front. So much so, that the mercenary leader entered into a spiral of complaints against the Defense Minister and his team due to the “weak” management of the war and the insufficient shipment of equipment that lasted until this weekend, when the accumulation of criticism led to the rebellion. Even Gerasimov prohibited him from entering the headquarters this past winter due to his continuous visits plagued by outbursts.
Members of the US Administration have expressed to ‘The New York Times’ their conviction that the mercenary chief would not have launched a rebellion against Moscow without thinking that he would have some support from within the Russian military structure. The absence of an armed response to his mutiny, beyond a confrontation with several helicopter gunships in his path, and the ease with which he took over the Rostov military district pointed in that direction, as did the characteristics of himself. bet. No analyst can imagine how Prigozhin, a combat veteran, could have thought that a revolt with only 8,000 men facing the Russian armed forces would come to fruition.
The suspicions about Surovikin, revealed by the New York newspaper in today’s edition, should be confirmed in the next few hours. For US and Ukrainian intelligence, his involvement would be big news, as the ‘butcher of Syria’ continues to figure among the invasion strategists and is known for his expeditious methods of warfare. His removal would be celebrated by the West and could also cause a strong psychological impact in his country, where he is considered a national hero.
Apart from determining whether Surovikin could have known about Prigozhin’s plans, the security forces must now find out to what degree he participated or if, instead, he decided not to go along with them. This possibility would illuminate another more comfortable scenario and would prevent Putin from being deposed and arrested. At least immediately. In fact, the CIA has ensured that the Russian president himself was aware of the intentions of the leader of the Wagner Group hours before the rebellion, in the same way that the White House and the leaders of the US Congress knew since Wednesday. The only question was when Prigozhin would take the plunge.
General Surovikin declared himself against the revolt shortly after learning that the Wagner Group was occupying Rostov, a Russian city one hundred kilometers from the border with Ukraine where one of the five military districts directing the invasion operates. “I urge you to stop. The enemy is only waiting for the internal political situation to worsen in our country,” appealed the “butcher of Syria” in a message addressed to his former ally, with one hand resting on a machine gun. Beyond a spontaneous proclamation, it is also possible to think in this game of unknowns, suspicions and betrayals that it was a message forced by circumstances.
It is striking, as revealed by ‘The New York Times’, that another command, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev, described the revolt as “a stab in the back of the country and the president” in a public message and hours later he was seen conversing calmly with Prigozhin on a Rostov square. At that time, Putin had already declared the head of the Wagner Group a traitor and ordered his arrest, which no one carried out.
What is clear is that the Kremlin chief would now possibly like to go back in time and erase the December ceremony in which he awarded Surovikin the Order of St. George Third Class for his battlefield achievements. . An ephemeral boast if one takes into account that a month later he dismissed him in one of the most notorious episodes of pathos that the Russian government has experienced since the beginning of the invasion.
Surovikin returned to Moscow while the second in the Defense hierarchy, Valery Gerasimov, took his place. Nobody understood anything. The general and the minister Shoigu thus evidenced their deep enmity at a critical moment. The regime’s propagandists wondered how the president would bring back the hero who had achieved the power blackout in Ukraine, a warlike tactic highlighted by not a few connoisseurs as a way of holding the population hostage on the eve of a harsh winter and trying to force the Kiev authorities to a negotiation. A terrible way to gain fame, but not unheard of for someone who has earned the nickname butcher of Syria.
The maneuver left Putin touched, but also generated an enmity of no return between Prigozhin and Sergei Shoigu. Both maintain a strong rivalry. Wagner’s boss understood that the revelation of ‘General Armageddon’ was the minister’s way of mowing the grass under his feet at the front. In Moscow it was also seen as a political maneuver by the president and his General Staff. “It was obvious that Surovikin’s appointment and the praise he received stemmed, at least in part, from the need to create a commanding figure for ‘shameful’ actions that Putin did not want to take on his own behalf,” he told Reuters. Researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank. In other words, the general would have played the role of Putin’s scapegoat to purge military failures in a winter that radical propagandists considered crucial in the objective of overthrowing the Zelensky government.
Surovikin’s friendship with the Wagner Group leader dates back to Syria when the two were apparently acting like two wild beasts with a license to kill. Prigozhin says of him that “he is the most competent commander of the Russian Army.” Considered a master of logistics, this was one of the reasons why he was transferred to the Ukrainian front in October, then a disaster in terms of supply and supply of ammunition to Russian soldiers fighting on the front line.
Surovikin has a well-constructed reputation for ruthlessness. Those who have analyzed him claim that his technique is to achieve military gains by terrorizing the civilian population. Something like decanting a victory by measuring who has the most stomach in a war. He oversaw the 2016 Aleppo campaign and the destruction of this Syrian city under a series of systematic bombardments that left no stone unturned.
Information in this regard states that he assaulted schools, hospitals and homes. 600 civilians were killed, including many children. Prohibited weapons such as cluster bombs and incendiary bombs fell on them. Thus was born the ‘Syrian butcher’, who has been accused of using the same arsenal in Ukraine. The day he was appointed to command began with an intense systematic bombardment of various cities in the former republic. He then sentenced his citizens to death by thirst or freezing.
How does an individual like that resist the pressure of being investigated for aiding a rebellion? Something much more serious now depends on his declaration than the armed initiative of a frustrated mercenary warlord. If it is shown that he “helped plan” this mutiny, it would make it clear that a part of the military hierarchy is, at least, in favor of a change in the Kremlin. To what degree is not yet known. Prigozhin declared on Monday that his intention was not to overthrow Putin. His enmity with Minister Shoigu, Gerasimov and other members of the Army leadership, common on the other hand with Surovikin, may indicate that his objective would have been a complete removal from the Ministry of Defense and from the direction of a war whose duration and cost of lives is increasingly making a dent in Russian society.
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