International politics expert Ulrich Schlie believes it is possible that the Israel war could spread into a conflagration in the Middle East.
Munich – The War in Israel is now going on for the third day. There are still fighting between Israeli soldiers and terrorists from the Islamist Hamas in the border area. In response, the Israeli army is flying air strikes on the Gaza Strip and is said to be preparing a ground offensive. Because Hezbollah has also intervened in the war, there could be a threat of an all-out war in the Middle East.
“The danger of a wildfire cannot be dismissed,” said Ulrich Schlie in an interview IPPEN.MEDIA. He is a member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the North Rhine-Westphalia Academy for International Politics and Henry Kissinger Professor for Security and Strategy Research at the Institute for Political Science and Sociology at the University of Bonn. Hamas “consciously accepted an escalation with its perfidious attack.” Israel Schlie explained further.
War in Israel: Security expert sees “risk of conflagration” in the Middle East
That Hamas in view of Israel’s expected ground offensive in the Gaza Strip The security expert does not believe that the deal will be withdrawn. “Hamas will have factored in a ground offensive in Gaza, as this has always been Israel’s traditional response in similar situations,” Schlie said. He expects further provocations “to cause the greatest possible collateral damage.”
A quick end to the Israel war is therefore not in sight. “Hamas opened the game with fire. “It will continue because the wounded Israel will not give up,” Schlie continued. Especially since Hezbollah could also intervene in the conflict. The Iran-backed Shiite Hezbollah militia in Lebanon declared solidarity with Hamas on the second day of the war in Israel fired rockets at positions in northern Israel.
War in the Gaza Strip: Schlie sees real danger of escalation
“The fact that Hezbollah attacked an area of the Shabaa farms, which is viewed by Syria and political forces in Lebanon as Lebanese territory, indicates that Hezbollah is striving for the greatest possible solidarity,” explained Schlie. Iran has also already declared its solidarity with the militia in Lebanon.
Even if Hezbollah and also the ally and Israel’s arch-enemy Iran Schlie sees a real danger of escalation as “we probably have no interest in a major war at this point in time.” According to the Israeli military, Hezbollah has more than 100,000 short- and medium-range missiles.
Israel war: Germany must follow its commitment to Israel with actions
The international relations expert also justifies this with statements from the US President Joe Biden and German governments regarding Israel’s security. “The United States will leave no doubt about its determination to intervene,” Schlie said. Biden cannot allow himself to appear hesitant about Israel’s security in view of the upcoming elections. The USA recently sent warships and an aircraft carrier to the crisis region.
After the attack Hamas-Terrorists, the chairmen of the traffic light and Union parties reiterated what Angela Merkel had postulated in the Knesset in 2008: Israel’s security was Germany’s “historical responsibility and part of the reason of state.” Germany will have to follow this commitment with action in the Israel war, said Schlie. (mt/acm)
To person
Ulrich Schlie, born in 1965, is a member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the North Rhine-Westphalia Academy for International Politics (English: Academy of International Affairs NRW, Managing Director: Dr. Mayssoun Zein Al Din), Henry Kissinger Professor for Security and Strategy Research Institute for Political Science and Sociology at the University of Bonn and Director of the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies (CASSIS).
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