IT SEEMS THAT economic storm that we live after the presidential elections It was only the preamble, because the Rating agencies could remove Mexico’s credit he investment grade.
This scenario, with a 65% probabilitycontemplates a slowdown in economic growtha inflation outside the tolerance range of the Bank of Mexico and a high reference interest rate.
One of the main challenges that the administration will face Sheinbaum It will be the reform to Power of attorney.
According to fund manager Franklin Templeton, This reform could have a negative impact he growth potential of GDPto the decrease the trust of the investors.
The uncertainty on the new rules of the game could limit the investmentgenerating greater volatility in the markets.
It is expected that the national economy grow by 2% in the second half of the year, while the inflation would fall to 4.5%, still outside the tolerance range of the Bank of Mexico.
The reference interest rate would remain around 10.5%.
These projections reflect a complex outlook for the new administration, which will have to balance economic stability with the need to implement structural reforms.
Currently, the three main rating agencies maintain Mexico’s sovereign rating in the investment grade category, although they have warned about the risks associated with the deterioration of public finances.
S&P Global Ratings, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings have maintained their ratings with stable outlooks, but there are concerns about the strategy that the incoming government will follow.
Although the fiscal deficit is a significant risk, it will be possible to reduce it in 2025 by reducing non-recurring expenses and taking advantage of inertial revenue growth.
However, from 2026 onwards, the deficit could increase again due to a lack of resources for new infrastructure projects.
The financial and operational situation of Pemex represents one of the greatest risks to the stability of public finances.
Tax transfers and rebates have amounted to almost 1.5 trillion pesos in the first five years of the current administration.
Although these measures have prevented a further downgrade of its rating, the restructuring of Pemex and its debt will be a long and complex process.
The mining industry in Mexico faced declines in 2023, affected by internal and external factors. The Mexican Mining Chamber reported an investment of 4.96 billion dollars, 5.8% less than in 2022, and a 17.6% drop in the value of mining-metallurgical production. These declines are attributed to the lack of global economic dynamism and restrictive national regulations. The sector’s share of GDP also decreased, as did tax contributions and job creation. Despite the challenges, the association headed by Jaime Gutiérrez is confident in the sector’s resilience for 2024 and 2025.
The ENERGY POLICY of the government of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador The policy has sparked debates due to its high cost, which for many is a sign of failure. According to the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research, this policy has cost 1.867 billion pesos and, if continued by the next government, it would cost 2.195 billion pesos annually between 2024 and 2030, equivalent to 1% of GDP. The current policy is based on support for Pemex, the participation of the CFE in electricity generation and subsidies for electricity rates. Maintaining these pillars would imply high costs for the next administration.
FIBRAEMX PLANS A SUBSEQUENT PLACEMENT TO EXPAND ITS PORTFOLIO. It seeks to raise up to 5.4 billion pesos through the sale of trust certificates for investment in energy and infrastructure. The funds will be used to acquire a 29% stake in the concession of the Amozoc-Perote Highway and the Perote Bypass. This expansion is part of a broader plan that includes three other major acquisitions in the next two years.
TUHABI, the brokerage firm, has started operations in León, Guanajuato, and Saltillo, Coahuila. Already present in Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey, Querétaro, and three municipalities in Hidalgo, this expansion increases its presence to seven Mexican cities. TuHabi is giving priority to the Mexican market, so that residents of León and Saltillo can now sell their properties quickly and safely, according to the company.
THIS COLUMN WILL BE REPUBLISHED ON MONDAY, JULY 29.
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