Global warming in winter: do high temperatures reduce cold deaths? Do they favor tourism?

Although there is a lot of talk about deaths caused by heat in Spain, statistics show that today there is a higher mortality rate in the winter months than in the summer months. Can global warming reduce deaths in cold periods or have other advantages for agriculture or tourism? The data on the negative impacts of rising temperatures is overwhelming, but the problem is often seen through very different eyes in winter than in summer. An undeniable advantage for citizens of a milder climate on cold days, for example, is lower spending on heating, but these positive effects usually have the other side of the coin, such as increased electricity consumption in periods of cold weather. heat from air conditioners.

Regarding the numbers of deaths, according to Julio Díaz, researcher at the Carlos III Health Institute, “deaths attributable to cold are always greater than those attributable to heat, at least that has been the case until now.” As this physicist, expert in health and climate, details, in 2019 (the most up-to-date year not influenced by covid deaths), in November, December, January, February and March there were 38,000 deaths on average per month in Spain, while that in June, July, August and September the average number of deaths did not reach 32,000. These are all non-accidental deaths, which may or may not be related to temperatures. One way or another, mortality in the cold months exceeds mortality in the hot months.

Now, as Díaz specifies, there is a maximum temperature (in Madrid it is around 36 degrees) from which deaths due to heat skyrocket and another minimum (1.9 in that same city) in which it occurs. Same with the cold. When measured this way, the result changes completely. In the period 2000-2009, there were an average of 1,400 deaths per year due to heat waves in the country, compared to about 1,000 deaths due to cold waves.

The researcher at the Carlos III Health Institute explains that, in periods of extreme heat, deaths occur in the very short term and only between 2% and 3% of them have to do with heat stroke. The vast majority of deaths occur due to aggravation of other pathologies, such as circulatory diseases, strokes or even neurodegenerative diseases. “We are seeing in Madrid that three days after a heat peak, deaths from Parkinson's, Alzheimer's and dementia increase,” says Díaz. In the case of cold, after a very pronounced minimum temperature, deaths can begin between 7 and 20 days later and, although there are also deaths due to aggravation of pathologies, here specific diseases such as flu, pneumonia or bronchiolitis have a great impact.

Can the increase in temperatures in the cold months prevent deaths to the point of offsetting those that occur in heat waves? While the situation may vary from place to place, this is not what Díaz has found. in their investigations inside and outside the country. In the case of Spain, this physicist emphasizes that the maximum temperatures in the summer months are rising at a rate of 0.4 degrees per decade, while the minimum temperatures in the winter months are rising at a rate of 0.2. “There are going to be more and more heat waves, but the cold waves are not decreasing in the same proportion,” concludes the researcher, who also believes it is important to pay more attention to the impact of pollution on mortality in heat waves and the expansion due to the rise in temperatures from diseases transmitted by mosquitoes or ticks. In his opinion, it is essential to continue working on prevention against both heat and cold.

Frost and agriculture

When thermometers exceed 40 degrees in summer and forest fires break out, most people are clear about the disaster that global warming represents, but this is less evident when temperatures above normal are recorded in the cold months. . In fact, we often still talk about bad weather when it rains or the thermometers drop. Sara Sánchez researches the effect of climate change on agricultural systems at the National Institute of Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA/CSIC), in Alcalá de Henares (Madrid). To do this, he manipulates the climatic conditions of crops with heating chambers – a kind of greenhouse – and rain-exclusion roofs and explains that “an increase in temperatures can have some positive effects on agriculture, but it is doubtful that they will outweigh the negative ones.” Above all, when all the problems generated by droughts, floods or other extreme events aggravated by global warming are added.

If the issue is limited to the increase in temperatures, this ecologist points out that a warmer climate causes the plants to grow faster and flower earlier in cereals. However, this does not translate into a larger harvest, but rather the opposite. In addition, soils produce greater greenhouse gas emissions, changes in biodiversity and an imbalance in the nutrient cycle. These changes can also have important impacts on the natural environment. As the researcher comments, “an earlier flowering period can also affect pollinators.”

Regarding the cold specifically, Sánchez explains that “although frosts are negative when they come at the wrong time, there are plants and seeds that need these processes to be able to germinate.” According to the ecologist, “a harsh winter is also like an environmental filter” to reduce populations of bacteria, fungi or insects that can behave as pathogens. “If these populations don't decline in winter, there are many more pathogens early in the growing season. This is what has happened to large coniferous forests in the north of Canada and the United States, where there has been a huge mortality of trees,” she emphasizes.

Deseasonalization of tourism

One of the sectors where abnormally high temperatures in the cold months are often received as good news is tourism. Santiago Vallejo, president of the Spanish Association of Tourism Professionals (AEPT), considers that a milder climate in winter can be an advantage in certain areas, which can lead to changes in habits or even “a deseasonalization” of the tourist trips, so that they are less concentrated in the summer months. Now, the other side of the coin in the cold months is snow tourism. As Vallejo points out, “we are having a winter with little snowfall and the ski resorts are opening with few kilometers of ski slopes.”

There are many uncertainties about the effects of global warming on tourism. A recent article in Financial Times It affects how changes are occurring in European tourist bookings towards destinations further north after the heat waves and fires that occurred in past summers in the Mediterranean. “Tourism is not mathematics,” says the president of AEPT, who thinks that the increase in temperatures will not impact so much on the sun and beach tourism model traditionally offered from Spain. Even so, Vallejo recognizes that “climate change is a reality that is upon us” and is especially concerned about other climate impacts, such as drought. “That the swamps of Andalusia or Catalonia are at such low levels also has a great impact on tourist services,” he emphasizes.

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