Once again, a new year will begin surrounded by uncertainties about the global economy. This was also the case with 2024 and it is true that several of its threats did not materialize or were mitigated.
The case of 2025, however, threatens to be different, given that a first-order destabilizing factor, a new trade warthreatens to break out. The argument that the donald trump protectionist and anti-globalization is an old acquaintance.
There are key differences between his first term and the one that begins in January capable of multiplying the damage of his decisions. The latter now have the reinforcement of Republican dominance of the legislative chambers.
Secondly, it must be calibrated the great scope of the new trade confrontation. War not only simultaneously threatens areas as large as China, Mexico and Europe. Its range is also very broad in terms of the products it would affect, and runs from automobiles to chips, including components for the Defense sector or food. Finally, countries like China or Germany face the new threat with a weakness that they did not present in 2017.
It should not be surprising, therefore, that experts see it as a certain risk that the advance of global GDP will slow down by one percentage point already in 2025and is below 3%, which for practical purposes would have consequences close to a global recession. It is about a high danger scenario in which not even an economy with such good expectations as the Spanish one – which, in addition, faces its own challenges such as lack of productivity – will emerge unscathed.
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