That well-known expression according to which few things matter as much in the economy as politics became evident again yesterday in Davos. Without ignoring that the first day of thematic sessions was very varied, the greatest attention was focused on the problem that worries the vast majority of attendees: international tensions and the possibility that the winds of war blow even stronger.
That this concern is present is something that he made very clear. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission. According to the official, the planet is experiencing a situation “of conflict and confrontation, of fragmentation and fear.”
The causes of this vision are known. Both Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Israel's offensive against Hamas, which threatens to spread to other parts of the Middle East, do not seem to have an easy way out, at least in the short term. The prospect of prolonged conflicts, in which the great powers play a role, raises the risks to a level not seen since the Cold War era.
And none of the speakers who spoke the day before helped to calm the audience. Although both China and the United States had high-level representatives, the spirit of throwing darts prevailed more than building bridges.
In this way, the Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang, who heads the largest delegation from his country that has been present in the Swiss population in years, criticized in a speech made in the great hall of the Congress Palace the trade restrictions adopted by Donald Trump and continued by Joe Biden.
For his part, the White House national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, maintained in the same scenario that Washington only takes limited actions in specific areas, thereby ignoring criticism from Beijing. In turn, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is also in the Alpine population, held closed-door meetings more focused on the Middle East.
(You can also read: 'The four key themes of the World Economic Forum, in Davos / Analysis by Ricardo Ávila').
Another special guest was in charge of reminding attendees that the great threat persists. In his traditional fatigue uniform, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyearned a standing ovation by saying that his country will continue to pay an enormous cost to defend its territory and serve as a retaining wall against Russian expansionism, but that it requires much more support.
It is enough to remember that American aid has run out and the opposition-dominated Congress refuses to discuss a new resource package. And as far as the community bloc is concerned, Hungary has prevented the transfer of a large sum that kyiv desperately needs.
As it is, in Davos there is no light at the end of the tunnel. In fact, most experts consider that reality could be worse in a few months if Donald Trump returns to the presidency and once again uses the score of his first turn: cooling towards NATO and conciliatory messages for Vladimir Putin, which would embolden to Moscow.
As if that were not enough, several experts argue that China's growing military power aims to create problems with its Southeast Asian neighbors. Not to mention what could happen with Taiwan, whose survival as an independent entity is not something that Beijing accepts.
Even if the worst fears do not materialize, the outlook looks difficult. For Meghan O'Sullivan, a professor at Harvard University, “we live in an environment that is more prone to conflict.”
In the opinion of the academic, The reason is that the planet experiences a series of transitions of different order, which are somehow interrelated.
Thus, the climate of international cooperation that was once in sight has been replaced by one of competition. In parallel, globalization has given way to fragmentation, something that is expressed in a multipolar world. No less important is the abandonment of fossil fuels and the development of clean energy sources, which also comes with a geopolitical expression.
Put another way, there are now many more areas of friction while a new international order is defined, since the one designed after the victory of the allies in World War II shows signs of exhaustion. As this process can take decades, there will be more and not less friction between countries and blocs.
Within this perspective, it is striking that Latin America is not on the radar of the majority.. Beyond the shocks in the political field and the dissatisfaction of its inhabitants, the emergencies of this part of the map pale in comparison to the fires that exist in other latitudes affected by wars and great humanitarian tragedies.
(You may also be interested in: 'Are we less Colombian than we thought? / Analysis by Ricardo Ávila').
Experts such as former Spanish Foreign Minister Arancha González think that the region can play a key role in critical issues such as global warming (see interview). But to do this, the nations of the area need to speak in a more coordinated way, even if their presidents think or have different ideologies.
For now, though, the frowns are building. Even if there is a consensus that world harmony is in serious trouble, It does not seem possible that in Davos – or in any other space – a solution will begin to be built soon.
RICARDO ÁVILA – SENIOR ANALYST – SPECIAL ENVY OF EL TIEMPO
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