The Arctic could be free of sea ice during the months of September from 2030-2050 under all emissions scenarios, according to a model-based study, which is a decade sooner than previously predicted.
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The research you publish Nature Communicationsled by the Pohang University of Science and Technology (South Korea), indicates that this possibility can occur even in a scenario of low greenhouse gas emissions.
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The sixth assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published last March, predicts that the Arctic will be practically free of sea ice on average in September, close to mid-century under medium and high emissions scenarios, although not low emissions.
However, new study published today projects that the Arctic could become sea ice free by September from 2030-2050 under all emissions scenarios.
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These results highlight “the profound impact of greenhouse gas emissions in the Arctic and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future,” the authors write.
In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly in all seasons of the year, with an increasing decline since the year 2000.
An Arctic without sea ice – recalls the team – would affect human societies and natural ecosystems, both inside and outside that region, changing, for example, marine activity, further accelerating the warming of the area and altering the carbon cycle.
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The team led by Seung-Ki Min used observational data between 1979 and 2019 to constrain climate model simulations. The results suggest that the human impact on the decline in Arctic sea ice can be observed throughout the year and can be largely attributed to increased greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the contribution of aerosols and natural factors (such as solar and volcanic activity) turned out to be much smaller.
Regarding the contribution of aerosols and other substances that deplete the ozone layer (ODS) to the disappearance of sea ice during the Arctic summer, last May the journal PNAS published a study on how the Montreal Protocol, which limits its use, it helps to delay this scenario.
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(These results) show the profound impact of greenhouse gas emissions in the Arctic.
The research, based on models, indicated that the application of this protocol, which entered into force in 1999, is delaying the appearance of the first ice-free Arctic summer by up to 15 years.
If this international treaty had not been promulgated, the global average surface temperature would be about half a degree warmer and the Arctic ice cap almost a degree warmer by 2050, that study indicated..
The Montreal Protocol aims to reduce atmospheric concentrations of ODS, commonly used in products such as refrigerators, air conditioners, fire extinguishers and aerosols.
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