The British newspaper The Guardian believes, in a report, that there are some reasons for cautious optimism about what we expect to happen in 2024, which it described as a “critical year,” as the future of Gaza and the West Bank may depend partly on whether Donald Trump returns to the White House. , as well as the outcome of the war in Ukraine, China is in a race against time as its population ages, and Sweden may finally join NATO.
The Gaza conflict may extend to the West Bank
The fifth and bloodiest Gaza war shows no sign of slowing down or stopping, with Israeli army officials expecting military actions to continue until next January, before implementing a second truce to bring in more humanitarian aid or exchange hostages and prisoners.
This comes at a time when the US administration told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that its “patience is running out” due to the heavy losses among civilians, but nevertheless it did not follow a policy of reducing military aid or arms and ammunition sales.
The issue of the “day after” in Gaza is still unclear amid internal Israeli disputes regarding its nature, as Netanyahu has ruled out the return of the Palestinian Authority to control Gaza, in addition to the fact that the right-wing coalition government in Israel is unstable, but Netanyahu is determined to remain in office.
The fighting may extend to East Jerusalem and the West Bank, and the risk of escalation between Israel and Hezbollah in northern Lebanon continues to increase.
Battle of the White House
The 2024 US presidential election will look like the “final battle” for Republican candidate Donald Trump, who is seeking to reclaim the White House while facing 91 criminal charges in four states, raising the unique prospect of a presidential candidate juggling between campaign rallies and courtrooms.
Trump is already trying to turn the legal crisis to his political advantage, claiming that he is the victim of a “deep state conspiracy”, while US reports consider that the White House may be his only chance to get out of prison.
Some Democrats are concerned about their candidate, Joe Biden, especially after a series of opinion polls showed greater chances for Trump.
In turn, Biden said that Trump's candidacy prompted him to run for the presidency, indicating that he would not give him the opportunity to win again.
Sweden and NATO… a long journey
Nearly two years have passed since the then Prime Ministers of Finland and Sweden, Sanna Marin and Magdalena Andersson, held a joint press conference in Stockholm in which they announced their bid to join NATO, in the wake of the Russian military operation in Ukraine.
While Finland rushed to join the alliance in April, marking the fastest accession to NATO in history, Sweden's application stopped at the final hurdle as it continues to wait for the final green light from Turkey and Hungary.
However, expectations indicate that Stockholm's dream is close to being realized after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed, at the end of last October, to refer Sweden's request to Parliament for a vote.
Swedish Defense Minister Pall Johnson said he was confident that Sweden would soon become a member of NATO, creating a new power base in northern Europe.
Sweden has already signed an agreement with the United States that provides full access to 17 of its military bases, and the NATO integration process in Sweden is underway.
A decisive year for Ukraine
The Ukraine war is entering a new phase in the course of the extended conflict with Russia since February 2022, while Western estimates suggest that combat operations will continue next year, given developments on the battlefield, based on geopolitical considerations, and the elections witnessed by many countries supporting Kiev, as well as On the extent to which Western support continues to provide the required weapons and ammunition.
The second half of 2023 provided a realistic counterpoint to those hopes, given the stalemate on the battlefield, mounting casualties, and wavering international commitment to support Kiev, most notably from the United States, a key ally, as Republicans threatened to block US financial aid.
In addition, internally, a simmering dispute between Zelensky's team and the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaloghny, is increasingly spilling over into public opinion.
The coming year is likely to be critical for the war and Ukraine's future, but it depends on many things, not least the strength of Western support for Kiev, as well as whether Trump comes to power in the United States.
March 2024 was supposed to see presidential elections at the end of Zelensky's five-year term, but briefly mooting the idea of holding elections was met with fierce opposition from civil society and political opponents, who claimed it would be grossly unfair to hold elections during wartime, as it would lead to Simply for Zelensky to win.
Chinese race against time
The Guardian considers that 2024 will be the year in which Beijing learns the difference between what it can control and what it cannot control.
The year begins with presidential elections in Taiwan, which will determine the nature of relations for the next four years, as Beijing still hopes to persuade Taiwan to accept annexation, and is expected to launch interference and influence operations in an attempt to push voters towards candidates friendly to it.
Domestically, the problems caused by China's aging and shrinking population will begin to become more acute. Despite a range of incentives to encourage people to have more children, including tax breaks, subsidized artificial insemination and other subsidies, young women refuse to abide by them. Policies.
Beijing has made clear that childbearing is a national priority, and has tightened its measures towards closing feminist entities that promote a child-free life.
One way for Beijing may be to open the door to migrant workers, an approach that China, like other East Asian countries, has long rejected.
Climate and wildlife
Along with increasingly alarming warnings about the state of the Earth's climate, the natural world is reaching a new series of crisis points, with wildlife populations declining by nearly 70 percent since 1970.
Climate tipping points are approaching as the planet is on track to breach the 1.5°C climate threshold by 2027, with humans leading the greatest loss of life since the time of the dinosaurs.
As the climate crisis escalates, there are fears of further loss of wildlife, given the intertwining of these two crises. The issue of nature loss is expected to become more prominent in 2024, as its consequences become clearer, and as people notice first-hand the decline of beloved species and precious ecosystems.
This comes as the Conference of the States Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28), which was recently held in the UAE over the course of two weeks, achieved a list of unprecedented achievements in the history of the conference.
28 decisions were reached, most notably addressing the role of fossil fuels directly in the textual resolution of “COP28”, which is considered the most important achievement in global climate action since the 2015 Paris Agreement, according to “The National” newspaper.
The need to work to control the average global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius was also stressed, to avoid further negative effects of climate change.
Argentina…and the unknown
Argentina will enter uncharted political waters in 2024 after radical liberal Javier Milley became president in December, turning Buenos Aires into a new place.
During his campaign, Milley, 53, brandished a chainsaw symbolizing his desire for radical change and austerity, and two days into his presidency, he devalued Argentina's currency by more than 50 percent and cut transport and energy subsidies.
Milley claims that these “shock” measures are the only way to avoid the “disaster” of hyperinflation, but they are hurting Argentina's working and middle classes.
There will likely be mass protests as a result of these decisions.
European Union time bombs
Three issues will dominate public policy in Brussels in 2024, two of which are well known: Ukraine and migration, both of which represent a challenge. But it is the specter of far-right parties establishing themselves at the heart of the EU that is causing tension that the bloc's values around equality will be challenged. By those who promote xenophobia, racism and neglect of climate issues.
Negotiators from the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union have reached a political agreement on a new migration and asylum agreement, which includes a pre-entry screening process and increased reliance on countries outside the European Union to oversee migration affairs.
The European Parliamentary elections are expected to be held next June and are considered a “tipping point” for the new laws that will be agreed upon, as the nature of the new Parliament will be more important than others because it will determine priorities at the European Union level until 2029, at a time when it is expected to expand. The European Union includes Ukraine and Moldova.
If far-right parties gain a foothold in parliament, there are fears that the perceived “normalization” will lead to electoral unrest elsewhere, including France.
Familiar faces in Asia
As in most parts of the world, 2024 will be a big year for elections in South Asia, with Bangladesh, Pakistan and India all set to go to the polls within the first six months.
In preparation for the Bangladeshi elections on January 7, as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina seeks a fourth term in power, and in India there are approximately 1 billion eligible voters, all eyes will also be on its elections expected to be held in April or May, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seen to remain. , in power for a third term as inevitable.
In Pakistan, the Election Commission rejected the candidacy of former Prime Minister Imran Khan to run in the general elections in 2024 in two electoral districts.
Khan, widely seen as the country's most popular leader, says the army is targeting him and wants to keep him out of the election. The army denies this charge.
The 71-year-old former prime minister is being pursued in several cases before the judiciary following his ouster in April 2022 due to a dispute with the army. He was imprisoned twice.
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