Under pressure from the ruling military junta in Mali, France and its European allies are preparing to announce their withdrawal from this country from the Sahel, while Paris prepares its future device to fight Islamic extremists in this African region.
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce on Wednesday or Thursday night the withdrawal from Mali, where the forces of the former colonial power were mobilized nine years ago to fight extremists who continue to operate in the area.
In parallel with a summit in Brussels on Thursday between the European Union (EU) and the African Union (AU), Macron is expected to announce the withdrawal of Operation Barkhane, as well as the European special force Takuba, created to reduce the French deployment.
The day before, the French president and his colleagues “from the partner countries” will speak about the French presence in the Sahel, especially in Mali, at the Élysée Palace, announced the government spokesman, Gabriel Attal.
“It is impossible to continue in these conditions. The rest of the allies think the same,” Estonian Defense Minister Kalle Laanet told reporters, referring to Mali’s repeated power obstructions to the action of its foreign partners.
Thus, Bamako expelled the French ambassador and demanded the departure of a Danish contingent. France also accused Mali’s junta of delaying the return of power to civilians and resorting to a private Russian militia.
Faced with the risk of leaving the field open to Moscow in Mali, with the Wagner mercenary company in the crosshairs, Europeans from Takuba, the United Kingdom and the United States would have reached a consensus on how to stay in the region, according to several sources.
This united front represented a political imperative for France, in a context of growing distrust in the Sahel towards the former colonizer and to avoid comparisons with the chaotic unilateral withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan in August.
According to a source close to the Elysee, France promised to coordinate its withdrawal with the UN (Minusma) and European Union (EUTM) mission in Mali.
“The real turning point is that overnight the Malian armed forces will be without our air support, which would pose a security risk,” this source told AFP.
Two months before the presidential elections and in the midst of the French EU presidency, a forced withdrawal from Mali, where 48 French soldiers lost their lives (53 in the Sahel), could represent a setback for Macron, who has not yet confirmed his candidacy for re-election.
France defends the continuation of the fight against jihadists in the region. Movements linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS) group continue to operate there, despite the elimination of many of their leaders.
– Cooperations –
Neighboring Niger, a trusted regional ally that is home to a French air base, could play a leading role in the new device.
French Defense Minister Florence Parly met in February in Niamey with its president, Mohamed Bazoum.
In addition to the Sahel – Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad – France also plans to offer its services to other West African countries (Ivory Coast, Senegal, Benin, etc.) jihadism.
Three homemade bomb attacks last week left at least nine people dead, including a Frenchman, in northern Benin. On Saturday, France announced that it had eliminated 40 jihadists implicated in these attacks in neighboring Burkina Faso.
The challenge in the coming months will be to make the French presence less visible through stronger “cooperation”, without replacing local forces.
Paris must draw conclusions from its frustrated strategic ambition in Mali.
In the countries of the Gulf of Guinea, “it would be important to learn from the mistakes of the Sahel, where counterproductive solutions led to the disapproval of States’ security policies and the intervention of their international partners”, estimates Bakary Sambé, regional director of the Timbuktu Institute.
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