Although at the end of 2024 the new electric cars that are circulating on Italian roads could be more than 80,000which would lead to 300,000 cars in circulation without internal combustion engines, Italy would still be very far from the target of 4.3 million for 2030 indicated in the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) to achieve climate neutrality objectives. This is according to a study conducted by Antonio Sileo, Programme Director at Eni Enrico Mattei Foundation and Director of the Sustainability Area at I-Com, Institute for Competitiveness, in view of the first appointment with Fueling Tomorrow, an event scheduled for October 9-11 at BolognaFiere. “It is estimated – he states Sileus – that in 2030 first-generation biofuels could represent 2.3% of total transport consumption and advanced biofuels could even exceed the 5.5% target set by the European directive “RED III” for 2030, with a forecast of reaching the 11.6% target thanks to the incentive mechanisms for advanced biomethane and other advanced biofuels”.
Fossil fuels still on the podium
The data processed for Fueling Tomorrow, dedicated to new trends in the field of transformation of traditional fuels and new alternative and sustainable energy vectors, therefore underline the slowness with which the replacement of the current car fleet is proceeding. “Despite the policies in favor of electrification and biofuels – continues Sileus – fossil fuels still meet 95% of the overall energy needs of the transport sector, which, unfortunately, are responsible for 21.3% of global carbon dioxide emissions”. “At a global level – declares Paolo Angelini, CEO of BolognaFiere Water&Energy (a company owned by BolognaFiere and Mirumir) – the transport sector alone absorbs 26.2% of final energy consumption and 28% in the European Union. Sustainability goals have made the global automotive industry increasingly innovative and have driven research into new, increasingly eco-friendly fuels. We will discuss this extensively during Fueling Tomorrow, with debates and insights into biofuels, hydrogen and the future of mobility and industry”. With a view to moving towards true “technological neutrality”, other green vectors are starting to gain ground, which are essential for contributing to energy independence and the environmental sustainability of mobility, whether they are traditional products decarbonised thanks to increasingly sophisticated refining processes or the new “green gases”.
The positive effect of biofuels
Biofuels (produced from biomass, vegetable oils, food waste or animal fats) currently represent a 4.4% share of the transport sector with already a 5.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from road transport fuels in the EU (source European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO).
In Italy, 30 million more cars in fifty years, but less than 5% of these are electric and hybrid
At the end of 2023, there were almost 41 million cars in circulation in Italy (in 1970 there were just over 11 million), a sixth of all cars in the EU. The replacement process is proceeding slowly, even more so after the pandemic: electric cars represent less than 5 per thousand of the total in circulation and hybrids do not reach 5%. Even in the European Union, between 2013 and 2022, endothermic cars have always grown (+27 million) compared to electric ones (+3 million). “It is difficult – he concludes Angelini – that the EU decarbonization strategy allows Italy to meet its commitments to neutrality by 2050, as per the Paris Agreement. The solutions for the green transition cannot therefore be hydrogen or electricity, but must include an energy mix with traditional fuels, which through research will become increasingly green. Technological neutrality is an objective that can no longer be postponed”.
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