The most importantly most important vector in BBVA’s price is the Mexican weight, because it is the country that generates more in its business and because it consumes less capital. For this reason, the scenario in its OPA on Sabadell is still of wind more and more against, because everything points to the strength of the dollar – until it reaches parity with the euro – and, therefore, to the weakness of emerging currencies. That is why the possibility of getting an ace from the sleeve to BBVA is complicated right now that it seems that the game is lost when the exchange offer is dead, once the premium is missing in the equation for Sabadell’s shareholder. The OPA is in the dead way if to the absence of the premium the tactical decision of Sabadell is added to return its headquarters to Catalonia, which although the results account does not improve in anything, introduces a tangent political with as much depth as the economic one. Oliu has flown the last tired bridge that BBVA does not believe that Sabadell is worth more and does not improve his offer.
The improvement of the OPA, the last play of BBVA, of course, will be played in the high plants of the candle, at the headquarters of the Azul Bank, where they must be fustigenous for the tactical errors they have had in an operation that for them is strategic And they see the train escape. The most important, of course, is having resigned from the merger In a first attempt at the end of November 2020. It is very easy to analyze it because the Mexican currency from the epicenter of the Covid did nothing but appreciate in front of the euro, but the excess of prudence to finish off the operation became evident in the inability to close the merger with the vaccine of Pfizer already presented and Biden in the White Housebut it is also true that Sabadell wanted to sign without doing the ‘diligence’ of the bank.
The second attempt to besiege Sabadell – this time already hostile – leaked to public opinion in May last year, but that does not mean that in the machine room of the candle it did not work working months ago. Since the end of 2023. And some proof must be corroborated. It is striking that JP Morgan, BBVA Advisory Bank, with whom you are dealing with daily, nor congratulate the holidays in Sabadell.
But the lack of courage of the first attempt became reckless in the second according to the political calendar ahead. There was much talk that the operation was filtered before the Catalan elections, but the complication has been to launch an OPA when the safe choice Sheinbaum in Mexico was in the calendar in Mexico and Trump much in the US. Since April the weight has sunk.
BBVA will have to improve the OPA a lot. And, for this, they await competition since the vallens improve their forecasts, which are not yet part of the market consensus. The 13% break will improve and reach 16% of Caixabank. More dividend for the leader in remuneration of Spanish banking.
#Flying #bridges #BBVA #shoots #higher #Sabadell
