Five keys to interpreting the results of the Iowa caucuses

The caucus of Iowa open the Republican Party nomination race for the presidential elections on November 5. The primary race will be decided in just over two months. In Iowa, only 40 delegates are elected, but since it is the first round, its symbolic value is much greater. The result of the caucus will influence those in the following primary elections.

1. The percentage of the vote for Trump

Trump's margin of victory in Iowa will give a first measure of the degree of dedication of the Republican bases to the former president. So far, the biggest advantage for a non-White House GOP candidate in the caucus of Iowa were the 12 points that Bob Dole scored in 1988.

“We should do that. “If we don't do it, let them criticize us, right?” Trump told volunteers in Des Moines, the capital of Iowa, on Sunday morning. “But let's see if we reach 50%,” he insisted, although shortly before he had complained about setting such a high expectation. “[Es para] that if we end up with 49%, which would be about 25 points more than anyone has ever obtained, they can say: 'It was a failure, it was a failure,' he said.

An advantage of more than 12 points is a record, an advantage of 20-25 implies a sweep, but if it achieves less than 50%, it would mean that the bases have preferred another candidate instead of Trump. The former president wants to get more votes than all the others combined.

2. Who is second

The fiercest battle in Iowa is to see who comes second behind Trump. But it has a different meaning depending on who achieves it. If Ron DeSantis does it, it will be a relief. The governor of Florida began the campaign by saying: “We are going to win in Iowa”; However, in recent rallies and interviews he has changed to: “We are going to do well in Iowa.” If he comes third, his viability as a candidate will be in question. If the runner-up is Nikki Haley, even though she is a long way behind Trump, she will be able to sell a story of continuous improvement, heading to New Hampshire, where her prospects are good. Even if she comes third in Iowa, a very conservative state, more favorable to Trump and DeSantis, but within striking distance of DeSantis, she will be able to continue with that narrative.

3. Participation and the cold

Snow and cold will hinder participation in the Iowa caucuses. Temperatures below 20 degrees below zero are expected when the event starts at 7:00 p.m. (2 a.m. on Tuesday in mainland Spain). There are areas with poor communications due to snow and ice. Still, after two days without snow, the situation is a little better than it seemed on Friday and Iowans are accustomed to low temperatures. How participation affects each candidate will be decisive.

Trump and DeSantis' bases are more rural and older, making it more difficult for them to participate, but polls also show that they are much more enthusiastic and dedicated than Haley's voters. The former president, a lover of excess, asked his people to go and vote even if they were sick. “Even if you vote and then die, it will be worth it,” he told them at a rally on Sunday in Indianola, south of Des Moines, the capital of Iowa.

4. Ramaswamy and other fringe candidates

The caucus Iowa elections rarely propel anyone to the presidency (Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama are perhaps the most notable cases), but they often serve as a sieve to discard candidates without possibilities. This time, many have thrown in the towel before starting, including former Vice President Mike Pence or, last week, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Still, several fringe candidates survive, including entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Their results in Iowa should make them reconsider whether it is worth continuing.

5. The road to New Hampshire

There is barely a week left until the second round in the primary race. The Republican bases have an appointment next Tuesday in New Hampshire. There, Nikki Haley is hot on Donald Trump's heels, while Ron DeSantis is off the hook. The Iowa result will influence voters' perception of whether the outcome of the Republican primary is decided, or whether the party is still there.

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