The vigorous growth of the Spanish economy in recent years and the differential gap that has highlighted it with respect to the rest of Eurozone economies has not constituted in the eyes of rating agencies a sufficient guarantee as to improve … The credit qualification of Spanish public debt titles, which continue to anchored in the investment recommendation range but far from the premium levels that would make them preferential investment for large global investors in fixed income.
For analysts of the Fitch Agency, which has held this week in Madrid the annual meeting with investors in which he usually moves his prospects on Spain, background reasons persist that inhibit agencies when improving the sovereign rating of Spain.
“The macro data of the Spanish economy are very positive and of course we look at the economic situation when adopting our decisions,” explained in the meeting the head of sovereign analysis for Western Europe, Federico Barriga, “but” but Before economic data we look at the fiscal situation». And in this they continue to observe sources of uncertainty.
Fitch analysts believe that the reduction of the deficit and public debt operated in recent years has been slower than In the light of economic growth data and that is explained almost exclusively by the growth of nominal GDP, not because of the government’s commitment to the sustainability of public spending and that its forecasts suggest that the deficit will stabilize in the environment 2.5% -3% above the level committed to Brussels.
“If the economy continues to deploy with the strength of recent years, it will help,” said Barriga, “but it is a process that must go hand in hand with fiscal sustainability and There is uncertainty about that»He admitted. In fact, he attributed the change in guidance in the perspective of the qualification of Spain operated in November, from stable to positive, to the momentum of the Spanish economy rather than its fiscal commitment.
The restlessness of the qualification agency also comes forward. Considers that from here to 2030 the Pressures on public spending are going to shoot For aspects related to aging, defense spending, the fight against climate change and the greatest weight of interest rates with respect to the stage of zero types of recent years and that this situation will test the fiscal mattresses accumulated by the countries. It must be remembered that after experiencing the greatest increase in the collection of its history, the strong increase in parallel of public spending in Spain has left the deficit above 3% and public debt above 100% of GDP … A Waiting for that impact.
The agency associates the eventual improvement of credit qualification to a faster debt and deficit reductionbut admits that it houses doubts about the government’s commitment to this scenario. «Chaining two years without budgets does not help. Budgets mark the orientation of the government’s economic policy and in their absence that evolution is difficult to glimpse, ”said Fitch analyst, who says that uncertainty makes it more difficult to determine what the evolution of Spain’s sovereign rating can be term.
The agency considers, at least, that Spain is more protected from the geopolitical turbulence that Donald Trump’s tariff offensive can trigger than the rest of large European economies, more exposed in their bilateral relationship with the United States. According to its calculations, a general tariff attack could cause a potential deterioration of up to 0.35 points on average in the economies of the Eurozone, while in the case of Spain the expected damage would be only 0.2 points.
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