Israeli officials warn Hezbollah against war. Their leader has already threatened to do so. The USA's deterrence is still effective.
Tel Aviv – Clear warning from Tel Aviv: If the international community does not keep the Islamist Hezbollah militia “removed” from the Israeli-Lebanese border, it will Israel “taking it upon ourselves,” said Israeli War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz, according to the British Guardian. Gantz in light of increasingly violent skirmishes between Hezbollah and the Israeli military. Apparently the patience of the Israeli leadership is hanging by a thread. Army spokesman Daniel Hagari warned on Monday (December 18) of a war in which Hezbollah, acting as “Iran's proxy,” would drag Lebanon into it. Is that threatening? War in Israel now becoming a wildfire?
Hezbollah leader Nasrallah threatened to “expand” the war
Since the attack Hamas on Israel on October 7th There is worldwide concern that Hezbollah is participating in the attack on Israel. The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, remained silent for a long time, but at the beginning of November he finally spoke out. At that time he threatened Israel with an “expansion” of the war. Since then, fighting in the border area has continued, according to the Guardian become more intense. Four Israeli and 14 Lebanese civilians have been killed in recent weeks. In addition, three journalists died in Israeli attacks. In a survey conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute in mid-November, 52 percent of respondents were in favor of a second front in the north.
Expert sees danger from Netanyahu
Middle East expert Andreas Böhm from the University of St. Gallen was interviewed fr.de from IPPEN.MEDIA The responsibility for a possible escalation lies primarily with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It is his “goal to stay in office, even if this means that the conflict lasts longer or even escalates,” said Böhm in mid-November. Netanyahu is also fighting for political survival in this war; a majority of Israelis already considered him “unsuitable” for his office at the beginning of December. Böhm emphasized that Hezbollah's huge missile arsenal had a certain deterrent effect on Netanyahu. On the other side of the border, the Lebanese Najib Miqati is nominally in power, and he “cannot assure” the Lebanese that Hezbollah will continue to act “rationally and thoughtfully.”
Currently, Hezbollah and Iran are “still deterred,” said Emile Hokayem, from the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank Guardian. But if Israel fights Hezbollah on a large scale, they will “see it as an existential war” and “all hell will break loose.”
1.5 million displaced people in the 2006 Lebanon War
The Shiite Islamist Hezbollah militia is closely linked to the mullahs' regime in Tehran, particularly in their hatred of Israel. In the south of Lebanon it is considered a state within a state with extensive influence. Its political arm sits in the Lebanese parliament. In practice, it exercises more political power in many areas than the Lebanese central state. Israel last waged war against Hezbollah in 2006. At that time, the Islamists kidnapped two Israeli soldiers in order to free prisoners. Israel then launched a war that displaced half a million Israelis and a million Lebanese. Both figures are contemporary government figures.
The US aircraft carrier deterrent is still effective
The war ended with an expansion of the mandate of the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL in Lebanon. It consists of a good 11,000 soldiers from more than three dozen nations. They are mainly stationed in southern Lebanon. Their mission is to monitor the ceasefire line on the border between Israel and Lebanon. According to the Bundeswehr, around 300 German soldiers are currently on site. UNIFIL cannot and will not intervene directly in the fighting; that would be against its mandate. In order to create stability through deterrence on Israel's northern border, the US Navy dispatched a carrier battle group off the coast of both countries shortly after the start of the war. It still works. (kb)
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