At its summit in Brussels, the EU is discussing its eastward expansion, also driven by Russia's desire for power. But joining Ukraine also entails risks.
Brussels – Expansion of the EU was not up for discussion for many years – too expensive, too complicated. But with that Ukraine war The situation has changed: Russia's attack on its European neighbor is spreading terror, especially in Eastern Europe.
One strategy to curb Putin's desire for power appears to be to expand the EU further east in order to limit Russia's influence there. That is why the accession of new states to the European alliance is the central topic at the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday (December 14th). The currently 27 members are negotiating which new countries could join their circle.
EU expansion topic at the summit – other candidates besides Ukraine
There are several candidates: negotiations could start soon with Ukraine and Moldova. Georgia could receive candidate status. There may also be negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia are also on the EU Commission's list. However, both are currently given few chances. Too many democratic criteria are not met.
At least with regard to Ukraine and Moldova, it is becoming apparent that a majority of EU member states want to give the green light to their accession efforts. Only Hungary blocked. The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán insists on EU principles that he does not see fulfilled in Ukraine.
However, observers suspect, according to a report by the Worldthat there is also self-interest behind it. Orbán's chief advisor said on Tuesday Bloomberg, In return for concessions on Ukraine, Hungary is demanding the 30 billion euros that the EU has currently frozen in aid money for Hungary.
The EU is worried about fear of Russia – it's about geopolitical influence
Will the EU respond to this blackmail attempt? If she does, then look east, towards Russia. The current geopolitical situation requires “to show that Ukraine belongs in the EU,” political expert Fabian Zuleeg from the “European Policy Center” analyzes in an interview with the World. The EU must act and expand its strategic sphere of influence, otherwise it will be a political and economic loser in the long term.
If the EU were to expand to include Ukraine and Moldova, and possibly also other Western Balkan states, the weight within the alliance would shift significantly towards the east. It is hoped that this will result in more influence in the world overall – and a growing EU internal market is also likely to play a role in these efforts.
EU expansion towards the East demands a high price
But in addition to the hoped-for geostrategic and economic gains, the EU would also face problems. For example, financial problems: Ukraine alone would be entitled to 186 billion euros within seven years if it joined the EU. According to internal calculations in Brussels, an expansion to include Moldova and Georgia would add another 74 billion Financial Times and Politico reported in October.
This means that the current candidates would have to pay more to the EU and would receive less in return. Current beneficiaries of the EU would possibly become donors. In addition: Unanimous votes within the EU – a tough procedure even with 27 members – would perhaps become an impossible undertaking with an enlarged EU. Cohesion and the ability to act would be at risk.
Macron and Scholz want Ukraine to join
Nevertheless, for most EU countries the price seems to be worth it. “The question for us is not whether we should expand,” said France’s president Emmanuel Macron in May. The only question that arises is, “how we should do it.” According to him, the new members should join “as quickly as possible”.
During their visit to Kiev in June, both Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke clearly in favor of quickly granting Ukraine the status of an EU candidate country. And a few days later, the EU Commission also made a recommendation for Ukraine to join the EU. (smu)
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