Here are the predictions from the “Football Laboratory” team for all the head-to-head pairings this week. 11 couples, 11 tips, to try to reach the prize pool
Eleven new pairings in the “Head to Head” of the Fantasy Championship and it’s time for advice again: the indications have been drawn up by the Laboratorio Calcistico team, based on the statistical data of the Serie A championship and the tactical analyzes of the various matches of this 12th championship day.
provedel or rui patricio
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1, A derby is always difficult to predict, even if in the last 12 derby matches in the capital the home team has won 8 times, 5 of which keeping a clean sheet. This season, Provedel has not conceded a goal in 3 of the 7 matches played at the Olimpico between the championship and the Champions League, so the choice falls on him.
ebosele or lykogiannis
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1. Two full-backs with equally difficult matches against teams returning from European commitments. The Greek is less present in the offensive phase with 4 Key Passes against 8 and 0.1 xA against 0.6, as well as 1.40 SCA per game (Shot Creating Action, or actions that lead to the shot) against the Irishman’s 3.81. Furthermore, due to Ruggeri’s injury, Atalanta will have to field one of Holm, Hateboer and Bakker, who have very little playing time on their legs. Green light for the Friulians on the outside, a role greatly valued by Cioffi.
hoe or ebuehi
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1. Complicated match for both, against the first and third attacks for npxG created (18.1 Napoli and 16.6 Juve). It is unlikely that the two will be present in the attacking phase, we rely on the probable formations which say that the Empoli full-back may not play, leaving room again for Bereszynski, who gives more defensive guarantees. Choice on Zappa therefore.
rugani or thiaw
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1. Here we can make more of a departmental reasoning, with the defense of Allegri’s team which is essentially impenetrable: 6 clean sheets in a row, only two goals conceded in total at the Stadium where it also has the best “expected” defense ever with 2.0 xGA. It is unlikely that it could be Cagliari, 3 goals in 5 away games, that hurt the Bianconeri in this state. On the other hand, Milan has a defensive block which has shown some gaps especially away from home (9 goals conceded) and the German giant in particular suffers a lot from teams that are quick on the counterattack like Lecce. These are the reasons for rewarding the Juventus player.
de winter or erlic
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2. The former collected 4 yellows in 7 games played, while the latter only one despite having played more. Sassuolo then plays against a Salernitana team that has collected 2.7 npxG in the last 5 games, a very poor tally. Then watch out for De Winter’s ownership, which could falter with Bani’s return: on points the Croatian clearly wins the duel.
candreva or bonaventura
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1. Having started strongly with a brace against Roma, the former Inter and Sampdoria player has recorded only 0.2 xG and 0.2 goals conceded and had a clean sheet against Lazio and Napoli) that due to the close European match in which Bonaventura played all 90 minutes, this head-to-head match could go in favor of the Granata. In addition, Campania’s opponent Sassuolo is the worst team ever in terms of xG conceded with 20.3!
calhanoglu or loftus-cheek
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1. Inter against a very offensive Frosinone, but also a team that concedes a lot as they are the third to last defense with 15.7 npxGA (expected goals without penalties conceded) and 18 goals conceded. Furthermore, the Turk is also an infallible penalty taker so far. The Englishman comes from a sumptuous performance in the Champions League but also from a major injury, it is likely that Pioli will not keep him on the pitch for all 90 minutes against a team that is also good at closing in defence. Go for the Inter fan.
zielinski or pessina
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1. The Pole is facing the third last defense in the championship (thanks to the 7 goals conceded against Roma), as well as the worst team for offensive underperformance understood as the difference between goals scored and expected. The Italian midfielder instead finds himself facing a Torino who only concede 10.18 shots per game. Even on an individual level, the data rewards the Napoli player, with 1.37 shots every 90 minutes against 0.57. The choice therefore falls on Piotr, who must return to scoring after 5 days of fasting.
rovella or cristante
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2. Derby atmosphere (and possible challenge for the blue shirt?) in a match that will certainly be very heated on a physical level. Rovella played half the minutes of the workaholic Cristante who didn’t miss a single one, despite this he collected an extra yellow card (3 against 2). The Lazio playmaker has never set foot in the opponent’s penalty area while Cristante does it at least twice a game. The choice on the Giallorossi is also dictated by his greater experience and by the fact that he rested for a while in the midweek European match.
luvumbo or lauriente’
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2. In light of the data shown previously on the defenses of Juventus and Salernitana, the choice is quickly made. With 1.8 xG the Frenchman has only clocked up once, he is expected to return to scoring soon and the Granata are the perfect opponent. Furthermore, the sprinter from Ranieri’s team will find little to match against a Juventus team that plays with a low center of gravity. The tenth head-to-head goes to the black-green winger.
beltran or columbus
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2. As already mentioned, Torino concedes few shots and few shots towards goal, but the class of 2002 has just scored a brace and doesn’t want to stop. Thanks to the Italian turnover, the new Argentine signing played 1/3 of the available minutes (369 out of 990), in which he recorded fewer npxG P90 than the Milan school boy (0.07 vs 0.33), fewer P90 shots (2.71 vs 1.22) and fewer touches in the penalty area P90 (5.16 vs 3.90). Last choice: Colombo.
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