F1 | The specter of Verstappen is already shaking the market: here's why

Speculations? Yes. Fantasies? No. In Formula 1, planning is everything, the teams are structured to plan every activity well in advance, every scenario must be foreseen, from company programs to logistics and, obviously, the driver market does not shy away from the modus operandi.

At the beginning of the year, only four of the twenty drivers at the start of the 2024 world championship were certain of knowing their long-term future and among these were Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton, respectively linked to Red Bull and Mercedes until the end of 2028 and 2025 .

What drastically changed the scenario was Hamilton's sensational move to Ferrari and shortly after the earthquake at Red Bull. Officially nothing has changed in Milton Keynes, but a potential revolution is around the corner, although silence has fallen after Jeddah, none of the key figures can consider themselves safe from choices (made or suffered) that could overturn many aspects, including such as the pilots market.

Verstappen can free himself from the current contract with Red Bull if Helmut Marko were to leave the team, a clause added subsequently to the contract signed in 2022 with an appendix defined by Max and Marko, without the involvement of other management figures of the team .

Christian Horner, responding to the numerous questions posed to him over the weekend in Jeddah, went further, underlining that it is not part of his vision to retain personnel, in any role, who express an intention to leave the team.

The alternatives on the Red Bull agenda

Returning to programming, at Red Bull today there are two scenarios. If at the end of the well-known Horner affair the Verstappen-Marko line-up wins, the team risks having to be rethought in its management positions without the figure of the current team principal and CEO. Conversely, it will be up to Horner to evaluate a plan B given that Max's presence would no longer be a fixed point. Obviously the matter has been the subject of numerous conversations among industry insiders: if a hypothetical Red Bull Racing were to find itself orphaned by Verstappen in 2025, who would it focus on?

The first surprise that emerges from the conversations of usually well-informed people is Norris' name. There were contacts between Red Bull and Lando in 2023, it was the McLaren driver himself who spoke about it, but Max's presence in the team discouraged Norris from considering a possible change of jersey.

His name is surprising since McLaren recently extended the contract with its protégé, supported since he was engaged in the preparatory categories, but contracts are not blood pacts. “Having the budget originally intended for Max available means being able to pay significant penalties,” commented a manager, taking it for granted that each contract still has an agreed amount to end the relationship early.

Then there are other more obvious names, given that they are drivers free from contractual constraints or with more malleable commitments. Fernando Alonso and Carlos Sainz are out of contract, so both represent simple choices from a contractual point of view. In Alonso's case, the prospect of a Red Bull opportunity, even for just one year, would represent the classic 'last dance' he has been dreaming of for some time. Faced with the prospect of driving what in 2025 should still be the best single-seater on the market, it would no longer be a question of money, but the worthy finale of an extraordinary sporting career but with a sense of incompleteness.

Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin Racing

Photo by: Shameem Fahath

Red Bull without Max is more attractive

The Sainz situation is different, his management is already talking to Red Bull, regardless of what happens with Verstappen. However, the scenario would be very different if the opportunity arose to join the team without Max, the indisputable leader of the team. The prospect becomes much more attractive than replacing Perez, and it is a thought that Sainz has in common with Alexander Albon.

The current Williams driver (already torpedoed on two occasions by Helmut Marko) was very cautious in evaluating a Red Bull offer that has already been sent to him in 2023, but the object was the steering wheel currently in Perez's hands. It's another thing to return to the team he drove for from mid-2019 to the end of 2020 without the presence of Max, with a potential leadership role up for grabs, regardless of who happens to be alongside him. Even in this case a penalty to be paid to Williams would not be an insurmountable obstacle.

Alex Albon, Williams Racing

Photo by: Shameem Fahath

The internal choice drawing from the current Red Bull drivers seems to be less popular. If continuity were to be assessed, Perez could have a chance, a lot will also depend on how much he shows in the first half of the season.

However, Daniel Ricciardo does not appear to be present in the evaluations so far. It's not a closed case, but an important signal is needed to bring up his shares, starting with the internal confrontation at Racing Bulls with Yuki Tsunoda. Horner is the person who in 2018 tried until the end to stop him from leaving the team, and this certainly works in Daniel's favor. But he must also return to performing at the same levels as six years ago.