F1 | Suzuka: 3 compounds in play, there is room for different strategies

Qualifying for the Japanese Grand Prix clarified quite clearly the values ​​in the field on the flying lap, with a reference Red Bull, McLaren behind it and a Ferrari further behind, struggling with tire ignition problems and in the fastest corners. Difficulties that were partly expected beforehand, because it was known that Suzuka would expose some of the points on which the SF-24 still needs to grow, but would also favor the best characteristics of both the RB20 and the MCL38.

If qualifying clarified the values ​​on the field, for the race the track will do the talking tomorrow, even if there are various elements that have already given some clues. In purely chronometric terms, Red Bull did not impress, but this is also partly due to the style adopted by Verstappen, who during his long run in FP3 tried to hide the true potential of the RB20 at certain moments, visibly raising his foot at the 130R or using less aggressive maps, to which is also added the issue of fuel on board.

Ferrari did well, with Leclerc's pace immediately catching the attention, so much so that it pushed the Monegasque driver to look at the race with more confidence. However, it won't be easy to move up the rankings, especially overtaking on a track with only one DRS zone, and there are still some unknowns that will only be answered tomorrow. In FP3 McLaren did not carry out a long run on the same tires as its rivals, mainly due to the fact that it only had two sets of hard tires and one of medium ones, however deliberately not used so as to leave them for the race. Precisely in terms of remaining tires, there are differences between the top teams which could also lead to interesting choices on a strategic level.

All three compounds are in play with two stops

What has become evident since Friday is that the soft is a tire that, in qualifying mode, offered just one lap, only to then lose the peak performance with a rather marked thermal degradation. However, from a racing perspective it opens up interesting scenarios, because it is not only the consumption that is evident, but also the performance difference between the various compounds.

On both Friday and Saturday, as confirmed by Pirelli, the softer compound guaranteed significantly higher grip than average, which could leave the door open to its use in the first part of the race. Teams often give up on using a compound, either because it is too soft, as in the case of the C5 in Australia, or because it is too hard and cannot reach temperature well.

However, in Japan all three compounds are potentially good solutions, as long as they are used in a specific phase of the race. Although Pirelli has not ruled out a single stop, especially in the case of a Safety Car at the most favorable moment, it is a possibility left in the background. Last year one of the few to try was George Russell, with results that were anything but exceptional: this year the temperatures are cooler, but the thermal degradation still remains marked. For this reason, the teams took precautions by maintaining three sets between hard and soft, so as to be able to plan a strategy with two pit stops.

Potentially some strategies are already marked out: Red Bull has two sets of mediums and one set of hards, as does Ferrari, while McLaren, Mercedes and Aston Martin find themselves in the opposite situation, with two hards and only one set of mediums. However, this includes the surprise of the soft which, although it does not offer great resistance over long distances, guarantees significantly superior performance and additional grip which could prove useful at the start.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing and Charles Leclerc, Ferrari

Photo credit: Mark Sutton

The soft is an interesting option from the start

The temperatures, almost 15°C cooler than in the past, reopened the possibility of taking advantage of the softer compound in the first part of the race to try something different at the start and try to recover some positions. Clearly the additional performance wouldn't last long, but given the large performance delta between the various compounds, the possibility of using it in the first ten laps doesn't seem so remote.

“The soft tire is 1/1.2 seconds faster per lap than the average. And this means that you could use it to gain an advantage at the start of the race. Of course, the first stint will be shorter, but you can plan a strategy in which you do a stint of ten laps on the soft and then do another two stints on the hard”, explained Mario Isola, underlining how, probably having to tack on the two stops, one could think of exploiting the softer compound at the start with a shorter stint to then manage.

In general, the degradation of the soft is very marked, but according to the Pirelli engineers the difference in favor of the soft compound in terms of performance in the first 5 laps of the race would potentially compensate for the time lost due to wear up to the tenth lap. However, the additional grip guaranteed in the first 5 laps would allow us to be more aggressive at the start or in the first stint, even for those in clean air.

But this combination is not an option within the reach of all teams, given that Red Bull and Ferrari do not have two sets of hard, so they would have to invent some other option on a strategic level. Pirelli also hypothesized this scenario: “If we go for the soft-hard-medium strategy, from our simulations the second pit stop should arrive in a window between the 32nd and 37th lap. So, assuming that the soft can last ten laps at the beginning, you should do between 20 and 22 with the hard. It should be doable even without doing too much tire management for the hard, and then fitting the medium for the last stint.”

Lando Norris, McLaren MCL38

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

For those with two mediums, however, a more aggressive strategy also seems possible, that is, mounting the soft and then doing two stints on the yellow band tyre. A possibility that, however, Pirelli leaves more in the background. Given that the teams are still forced to maintain certain sets in view of the race by the regulations, the fact that the majority of the teams have chosen to maintain two sets of hard for the race gives the idea that, according to the Italian manufacturer, the compound harder will be used in at least one of the three stints.

“A soft/medium/medium strategy is possible. We will see the characteristics of the circuit tomorrow, because there is still the possibility of a light shower in the morning and if there is a light shower, we know that the circuit will change. The strategy is feasible. But the fact that there are so many cars with two sets of hard tires ahead of the race, I think is a clear indication that the harder compound will be used. Otherwise, they would have gotten rid of the hard tires as soon as possible,” explained Isola.

The situation and the little data available on Friday left Pirelli with the feeling that there is not a single path and that there is not one strategy that is necessarily better than the others, which could give rise to a particularly interesting race from a tactical point of view .

“It's difficult to indicate the fastest strategy, because it depends a lot on the position on the track and the situation after the start. For me this is much more interesting, because at least tomorrow the teams and their strategic engineers will have some headaches,” added Isola.

Pirelli tyres

Photo by: Pirelli

Clearly those who have two sets of hard tires will have a better chance of managing the thermal degradation which, again, is particularly high according to what we saw on Friday, when however the track was not yet at its best. If it were to rain before the race, the rain could take away part of the rubber and, consequently, the grip left by the cars today. This is why McLaren, for example, preferred to keep two sets of the harder compound, in order to be more flexible in strategic terms.

The role of the undercut

Added to this is another element, that of the undercut. Given the performance deltas between the various compounds and the high degradation, the undercut could play a decisive role in strategies, especially considering that it is difficult to complete an overtaking given the characteristics of the track.

“The undercut is very effective on this track. It is an aspect that we also discussed in the last briefing on the development of the aerodynamic package and the fact that now, unfortunately, we are back in a situation where when you follow another car, you lose a lot of downforce again, whereas at the beginning of 2022 this loss was not so marked,” added the director of Pirelli Motorsport.

“Unfortunately, on this track, due to the fast and flowing nature of the track, if you are in traffic and following another car, you lose a lot of load. That's why the softs could be an option at the start to try to gain an advantage and not get stuck in traffic, even if you have a shorter stint in the first part of the race.”