F1 | Mercedes: Wolff saw a podium pace, but it was unrealistic

Mercedes' GP is a chiaroscuro Japanese GP, but with more shadows than lights. The team was clearly aware that the Suzuka track would showcase certain weak points of the W15, highlighting the critical issues already seen in the other events at this start of the world championship.

The Brackley team finished the race in seventh and ninth place, with a deficit of 45 seconds from Max Verstappen, winner of the Grand Prix, while the gap is reduced to 25 seconds if the reference is that of Carlos Sainz, third behind the two Red Bulls. However, despite the gap accumulated at the finish line, after the race Toto Wolff tried to look at the glass half full, underlining that the podium was a real possibility if it hadn't been for a disastrous first stint on the hard.

Initially, like most of the top ten, the two Mercedes had also started the race on the medium compound. However, on the occasion of the restart after the red flag on the first lap caused by the accident between Alex Albon and Daniel Ricciardo, the engineers revolutionized the strategy, switching from the yellow band compound to the harder one. A decision which, although it exposed them to the risk of losing positions when the traffic lights went out given the less grip offered by the hard, was born to have greater flexibility on a tactical level, with the possibility of varying between one and two stops depending on how racing had evolved.

However, both drivers struggled to find the rhythm on the harder compound brought to Suzuka, lapping significantly faster than both the two Ferraris and Lando Norris. A statement that may also be valid when, seeing that he had a potential pace greater than Hamilton, who was more in difficulty in managing the front tyres, the Stella engineers decided to reverse positions after 13 laps, letting Russell pass. Little has changed in practical terms, because the pace has not improved significantly, pushing the riders and the team to think about how to move from a strategic point of view.

It is clear that the initial intention was to focus on a single stop but, already after about twenty laps, it was clear that tactic was not working as hoped, so much so that Hamilton himself opened up via radio to suggest a change of strategy . An eventuality that, in reality, Mercedes itself was already considering, but which it had not implemented because it would have come out in Magnussen's traffic: it is no coincidence that Russell then stopped in the pits for the first stop only at the moment who had access to the window that would have allowed him to return in front of the Dane.

According to Toto Wolff, it was precisely the negative performance in the first part of the race on the hard that deprived the Star team of the chance to fight for the podium, because the pace in the following two stints would have been sufficient to enter the challenge between Ferrari and McLaren.

“We finished the race where we started it, with a seventh and a non-place. It was a complex race. We had a very fast second and third stint and would have been in contention for the podium, but the first stint was atrocious We need to understand what it was, if it was too hot, if we managed too much,” explained Wolff at the end of the race, underlining how the pace shown in the second part of the race would have been adequate to fight with Ferrari and McLaren.

George Russell and Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W15

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

The Team Principal supported the choice to change the strategy during the race, even focusing on a single stop, but said he was alarmed by the disappointing pace shown in the first part of the race, forcing the team to intervene again to change the plan.

“I think at the beginning it was the right thing to do because the situation seemed quite stable in terms of lap times. Our direct rivals weren't getting too far away, but then the pace suddenly dropped by two seconds a lap or so At that moment it was clear to us that we couldn't go on and we wouldn't last long,” added Wolff.

In fact, looking at the data, when Sainz made his first stop after 15 laps, the gap between the Ferrari Spaniard and Russell was around 11 seconds, an already significant disadvantage in itself considering that only recently passed the first quarter of the match. A gap that then widened to 24 seconds when the Mercedes driver stopped, who in the meantime had however undergone several overtakings on the track, including that of the Madrid native.

Russell first stint – 2024 Japanese GP

Photo by: Gianluca D'Alessandro

This clearly also meant that the Briton lost several seconds: for example, in fact, beyond the value of the car and the tires chosen for the first stint, one of the main differences between the one-stop strategy adopted by Leclerc and the one chosen from Mercedes with its two standard bearers it revolves around the overtaking suffered. Between the moment in which he chose to pull away and the one in which he stopped, Russell was overtaken four times in the space of just over six laps while, in the case of the Ferrarista, that number drops to two in about ten laps, to which clearly adds the mistake shortly into turn nine just before returning to the pits.

To give an idea, just think that from the moment Leclerc and Russell found themselves in first and second position after their rivals' pit stops, the gap between the two extended from four to eleven seconds precisely in the space of six turns. In fact, therefore, the strategy followed by Mercedes in itself did not work: beyond the time lost in terms of pure pace, there is the whole issue linked to the overtaking suffered towards the end of the first stint, which drastically the hopes of realizing the single parking option.

However, Wolff's reasoning focuses on another matter, namely the pace shown in the second and third stints, in his opinion not far from that of his closest rivals. In fact, looking at the times, from the moment Russell stopped for his first stop and the conclusion of the race, the gap from Sainz remained constant, around 25 seconds, hence the statement from the Star Team Principal it is not in itself it is wrong. It becomes so, however, when the context of the race is carefully analyzed.

Second Russell stint – 2024 Japanese GP

Photo by: Gianluca D'Alessandro

Having extended the first stint, in the end a rather marked tire delta was created compared to its rivals. Sainz had already completed seven laps on the medium since his first stop, while Norris had completed eleven laps on the hard. In fact, it is as if Mercedes had set up a race of 28 laps (remaining at the checkered flag) over two stints, but with the advantage of having already “saved” at least 7 laps on a very severe track on the tires: in fact it corresponds to a quarter of a race less than the opponents taken as reference by Wolff.

This discussion, then, takes on an even more marked value if we take Lando Norris's McLaren as a yardstick. Compared to the Mercedes, the Briton was forced to use two hards in the second and third stints, a compound that today gave the teams several headaches in terms of management, including Red Bull itself. On the contrary, the Star could count on an average saved in the first stint, which in reality McLaren poorly exploited. “Like I said, the hard tire was bad, but the medium was better. In hindsight it seems like we should have had two medium tyres. In general, though, the car was terrible today,” Hamilton explained at the end of the Grand Prix.

Norris was one of the first to stop and this forced him to extend both the second and third stints: a strategy that was not optimised, to the point that the Briton returned to the pits for his second pit stop at the same time as Leclerc, which however was on only one stop. In fact, by exploiting that eleven-lap delta, Russell then managed to close part of the gap to Norris, but strategy, tire life and two different compounds played in Mercedes' favor: this clearly does not take away from the fact that, with a tactic optimized differently , the Star could actually have been closer, but with a pace that was not as encouraging.