F1 | Mercedes, negative surprise: the W15 is too sensitive

After the victory in Spa, Mercedes arrived in Spa with rather high expectations and the intention of repeating itself, especially considering that in Zandvoort the new features initially rejected in Belgium would be reassembled on the car. Yet, the Dutch weekend of the Star changed radically in less than 72 hours, because from a very competitive Friday, on Sunday the Brackley team found itself playing the role of fourth force, even behind Ferrari.

A result that surprised not only the drivers, but also the team itself, which expected to be at least fighting for the podium, but already on Saturday the first cracks of the weekend were visible. As written after the free practice, the W15, although apparently competitive on the single lap, seemed to be more on the limit than the McLaren, on the contrary much more docile and simple to manage.

Hamilton’s exit in Q2 and Russell’s difficulties in keeping the tyres alive for the whole lap in qualifying also highlighted another issue, that is, the sensitivity of the car to the variations in temperatures and conditions, exactly as we had already seen in other events of the championship. Paradoxically, in the race it was the opposite, with Hamilton recovering more convincingly than his teammate, even if it is important to take into account the differences at a strategic level.

However, it is clear that, despite some disappointment on Saturday, Mercedes expected a significantly better race in terms of pace and degradation. “We had no pace, we dropped off significantly and that surprised me, especially compared to Ferrari,” Russell said after the race.

“We expected to be comfortably ahead of them, but Leclerc was quicker and Sainz was catching me. We obviously made a mistake with the tyres. After the first two laps I thought we were on our way to the podium, I knew overtaking would be difficult. I was really shocked by the speed of the McLarens,” added the Briton.

In fact, in reality, already from the first laps it was clear that Mercedes did not have the pace to keep up with Lando Norris and Max Verstappen, but the relatively good top speeds still helped to defend themselves from Piastri in the first stint, keeping the Australian behind. However, the second part of the race was much more complex, immediately suffering the undercut by Leclerc, while Piastri had an easier life thanks to an eight-lap delta of tires.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W15

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Hamilton was the protagonist of a good comeback in the first part of the race using the soft compound, the compound that, according to Pirelli, would have proved more effective at the big start at a rather marked performance delta compared to the medium. Undoubtedly they would have allowed him to cover fewer laps but, as explained by the seven-time world champion, his strategy from the beginning was based on 2 stops: “We had planned to do two stops, we started with the soft, which was very good, I found myself more at ease than with the medium in free practice”.

“The hard tyre was quite good, it was hard to know what to do. I was on the two-stopper, so I was trying to use the tyre, but I wasn’t even sure if we could do one pit,” Hamilton added. In fact, a one-stopper was considered during the race, but it was quickly ruled out, partly because Hamilton used the tyres too much at times in Turns 7-8, and partly because he locked up at one point, which forced him to come in.

This partly explains why Hamilton still had a competitive pace, thanks also to a more optimised two-stop strategy than Russell’s, which turned out to be more of a necessity than a choice. It was in fact with Russell that the problems encountered in Zandvoort on Sunday emerged most markedly, especially in terms of tyre management and slipping. Part of this had already been seen on Saturday, but in the race, especially in the second part, Russell had to fight against the slipping of the tyre in the corners and that feeling of a drop in grip, making it more difficult to find the confidence to push.

Oscar Piastri, McLaren MCL38, George Russell, Mercedes F1 W15

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

If on Friday’s medium-high speed corners Mercedes had defended itself well, on Sunday that excessive sliding, especially for Russell who had to conserve his tyres to try to get to the end, often led him to be the slowest driver among the leaders in the central sector, suffering the comeback of his opponents. Given the comeback of Sainz and Perez and an almost inevitable overtaking, the Star pit wall chose to call the Englishman back in the belief that, with the soft, he would still be able to close on the Mexican before the checkered flag, something that, in reality, did not happen.

The interesting thing is that in the final stint, on the soft, the British driver found himself struggling again with a lack of grip, but this time suffering more from understeer than oversteer, demonstrating how sensitive the car is.

Toto Wolff did not want to cast doubt on the updates, but believes that something probably did not work as expected in the chain with which the setup was chosen. “I think there were two factors. We were back-to-back. The update kit used on Friday did not give us much data, in Spa we had removed it. Obviously the fact that we ran, as for everyone, perhaps did not allow us to choose the right elements for the car. So there could be several elements that in some way contributed to this negative performance. These cars are sometimes a surprise.