In their interview with “Sky News Arabia”, political analysts ruled out a return to before 1991, and each of them drew the map he expected for the shape of the world after the Ukraine crisis.
The American academic, Eric Loeb, does not see that the conflict between Russia on the one hand and the European Union and the United States on the other hand reflects a return to the Cold War, as it was between 1945 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
He attributed this to “the different historical and political conditions”, and therefore “the conflict should be considered within its limits, regardless of the degree of polarization, because Moscow has become part of the prevailing world order.”
What the American academic suggests is that the world is now witnessing a liberation from polarity, meaning that the United States is no longer dominant at the top of the world, and there are poles qualified to enter into competition.
At the same time, Eric Loeb warns that the decline in Washington’s influence on sectors and regions “does not mean its collapse, but merely the decline of its hegemony for the sake of the presence of other players.”
And he continues, “The war in Ukraine seems to me as a radical chapter in history, because it signals a new birth, and it may be a cold war with a different version, and what happens reverts to a reassessment of political weights and the formation of alliances.”
A new paradigm for globalization
The Lebanese academic specializing in political science, Dr. Basil Saleh, explains that the talk about polarization between an eastern (socialist) camp and a western (capitalist) camp “does not seem logical and sound,” considering that the “Holocaust” now in Ukraine is between a Russian expansion that is trying to maintain weight. Geopolitics, and between a right-wing Ukrainian trend supported by Europe and America.
He cited his opinion by the voices rejecting the war within the two peoples, especially in Russia, where “massive demonstrations took place that Russian President Vladimir Putin could not confront except with repression and arrests.”
For his part, Denis Korkodinov, head of the International Center for Political Analysis and Forecasting in Moscow, expects that “the international community is rapidly moving towards a new transformation, and a new model of globalization and international relations is being formed.”
He considered that even with the end of the war, “this will not mean an improvement in the international situation, and therefore, with the transformations taking place at the top of the international system, there is an urgent need for institutional solutions that are compatible with the new geopolitical reality.”
Starting with Corona
In the assessment of political analyst Darwish Khalifa, the struggle over hegemony showed its indicators with the Corona pandemic, which revealed a great economic competition between Beijing and Washington, and then the Ukraine crisis came to clarify the most alignment between the so-called free world on the one hand, and Russia and its surroundings on the one hand.
Regarding the map of these alignments, Khalifa says: “I do not see China qualified to lead the world, because of its relegation within closed walls, its limitation to cross-border industries, its disregard for soft power, and its feeding of cruel central governments (Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba), but Washington needs steps to return to the global economic system, including having Germany, Japan and the Gulf states at its center.
And he concludes: “If the deterioration of the economy continues, this will inevitably lead to the subjugation of countries to the policies of countries, or to the submission of one of the two allies to the other, an alliance from the remnants of communism, and a capitalist alliance.”
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