Expected turnout this year is about two billion voters. And at stake: democracy

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This is a horror scenario, especially for Europe, which has happily strengthened transatlantic relations under Joe Biden in recent years. Trump previously threatened to leave NATO and end support for Ukraine. A Trump victory would throw the EU back on itself in terms of security, at a time when the threat from Russia is far from diminishing.

Moreover, as autocratic tendencies grow elsewhere in the world, Europe will find itself even more alone in standing up for a liberal, democratic world order. In recent years, the EU has had great difficulty getting countries to turn against Russia and speak out in favor of Ukraine. Faltering democracies only make that mission more difficult. It is obvious that more countries will look to China for support or alliances if the autocracy continues to gain ground.

But according to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, there are certainly also risks closer to home. “I think the European elections could be more dangerous than the American ones,” he said at the end of December during a lecture. The social-democratic Spaniard expressed the fear that European voters, confronted with the war in Ukraine and Gaza, will vote for “extreme right-wing parties out of fear”.

Elections are also scheduled for Ukraine – in March, just like in Russia

Not everyone in Brussels shares that analysis – ultimately, for many, the European elections are in the shadow of those in the US. But it is certain that it will also be an exciting election year for the EU. At the beginning of June, EU citizens in the 27 Member States will elect the European Parliament for the next five years. The elections largely determine the course of the EU and, after those in India, rank second worldwide in terms of voter numbers.

In his New Year's speech this week, French President Emmanuel Macron mentioned a “decisive choice” between “continuing Europe or blocking it.” It illustrates the fear among centrist politicians that voters will steer Europe sharply to the right. In recent years, right-wing radical parties have gained ground in various EU member states, most recently in the House of Representatives elections in the Netherlands. Polls show that these parties will now also grow significantly in the European Parliament.

This expectation was already there during the European elections five years ago. At that time, right-wing radical parties did win somewhat, but they hardly managed to make a impact at European level – partly due to internal divisions and political inexperience. In practice, it ensured that a progressive majority set the tone in the European Parliament with, for example, ambitious climate policy.

Many right-wing radical parties have now become professionalized and are co-governing more EU countries. If their growth also continues in Europe, this could influence the course in Brussels. For example, migration policy, which has already been considerably tightened by a recent European agreement, but may be tightened even further. Or for the European climate plans, which have been heavily developed in recent years, but which, according to the latest forecasts, are by no means ambitious enough to actually achieve the climate goals.

It does not mean that European democracy is necessarily weakening, but that priorities are shifting, and possibly also that Europe's position on the world stage is changing. Because if you do less on climate policy or make significant cuts in development aid, this will also have consequences for your credibility and influence elsewhere.

What is also crucial is how Europe's rightward turn influences support for Ukraine in Russia's war of aggression. In recent times, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been quite alone in his opposition to European solidarity with the country at war – at the end of December he was the only one who stopped the aid package for Ukraine. But it cannot be ruled out that his backing could grow over the course of 2024. Some of the radical right parties that are growing strongly in the polls enjoy warm Kremlin relations. For example, the Austrian FPÖ, which can win big in national elections next autumn, or the German AfD, which can lead in several local elections.

The super election year is exciting for everyone, but especially so for Ukraine. Only at the end of this year will it become clear whether the crucial support from the US will last. Before then, the country will also face its own democratic dilemma: can elections be held in the current war situation? There are international calls for the presidential elections, which should take place in March, to go ahead, but President Zelensky, among others, is reluctant to do so due to major practical problems.

Presidential elections are already planned in Russia in the same month, with Vladimir Putin set to reaffirm his power. The contrast between the two countries makes it clear: elections do not automatically mean democracy. And autocratic danger elsewhere can threaten our own democracy.