Expectations in La Moncloa due to the rise of Rubio, an academic with strategic vision

Unlike Óscar López, a lifelong politician over 50 like him, Diego Rubio has a very different biographical profile to Pedro Sánchez. To begin with, he belongs to another generation. He is from 1986, while Sánchez is from 1972. And he does not come from politics, he has never been a member of any party: he comes from academia, with a brilliant record. However, it is the trust that has been established between the two that explains why Sánchez has opted for Rubio as Chief of Staff, as EL PAÍS has reported. The appointment of this young historian from Extremadura, a graduate of the Autonomous University of Barcelona and also trained at the Sorbonne and Oxford, has raised expectations to the maximum in the heart of the Government due to the possibility that Rubio will make very profound changes in a structure from which the most important decisions are made in a Government as presidential as Sánchez’s.

We will have to wait for Rubio to take office, but various sources agree that it is likely that he will make important changes and sign new, younger and independent profiles, with impeccable academic records, and not so much people from the party apparatus. The first thing that will have to be determined is what will happen to the core of López’s team. The one who will be the new Minister of Digital Transformation had brought back to La Moncloa Antonio Hernando, another veteran of Sánchez’s group of friends who also, like López, broke with him in the 2017 primaries and from there fell into disgrace. Hernando had joined the private sector at Acento, the consultancy firm of Pepe Blanco, who was a mentor to all of them in the PSOE. From there he made the jump to La Moncloa at the call of López, who is now changing destination.

Another key name in López’s team whose continuity will have to be clarified is Paco Salazar, a man from the Sánchez apparatus who has a lot of influence on decisions and their execution, with permanent contact with all the structures of the Government and the party. Salazar was Redondo’s right-hand man, he left La Moncloa with him and ended up at the Hipódromo de Madrid, but later Sánchez and López called him back to return to the hard core of the president’s apparatus.

Rubio’s profile is completely different from that of these veteran politicians, and it is likely that he will bring in other people without political cards and from another generation who stand out for their academic careers, like him. Even so, it is not ruled out that he could continue to count on these veteran politicians who know all the ins and outs of the administration and the party. It will also depend on what they want.

Rubio, a historian with a national award for academic excellence and studies at universities such as the Sorbonne and Oxford, is independent and had no political career when he arrived at La Moncloa in 2020 as director of the National Office of Foresight and Strategy, recruited by Sánchez, whom he already knew before he was president, when the historian worked at the University of Oxford.

Rubio had specialized in public policy analysis and from the Prospectiva office he directed the document Spain 2050, with proposals for the future. Rubio gradually climbed the ranks in La Moncloa and increasingly influenced the president’s speeches and analyses, thanks to his strategic vision and in-depth knowledge of the issues. In fact, he became a member of the core group that prepares Sánchez’s speeches and debates.

In this job and on European trips, on which he accompanies the president, he has gradually gained the leader’s trust until he has reached the highest responsibility: Chief of Staff and therefore head of a very large team that is practically a kind of small government, with specialists in all areas and where almost all relevant decisions are made.

Rubio does not have the profile of Redondo, who had much more public exposure, was a communications advisor and accumulated enormous power in La Moncloa, nor that of López, a veteran of the party with connections in all spheres. But he is a person respected in the hard core of Sanchismo and has forged a strong relationship of trust with the leader. In these years, according to various sources in the Government, Rubio has demonstrated a capacity for strategic analysis that is very important for a position like the one he will occupy from now on.

Before Sánchez arrived, the chiefs of staff in La Moncloa had always been people with a long track record within the parties: José Enrique Serrano with Felipe González and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Carlos Aragonés with José María Aznar, Jorge Moragas with Mariano Rajoy. That line was broken with Redondo and returned with López. Now Rubio is starting a new profile, that of the academic strategist and shadow advisor who is making the leap to one of the most important positions in La Moncloa. Sánchez insists that he wants to complete the legislature. If he were to succeed, Rubio would have three years ahead of him to give the team a new boost, rejuvenate it and incorporate more independent profiles and academic excellence.