Supported for much of this Thursday by the positive performance of the New York stock exchanges – which, however, lost steam and turned to the negative in the final stretch -, for the first time in the year, the Ibovespa recorded its third consecutive rise, raising the B3 benchmark. at the highest closing level since October 20, then at 110,700 points. On the eve of stock options expiration, the index rose 1.01%, to 109,101.99 points, between a low of 108,014.50 and a high of 109,873.35 points, with a turnover of R$35.4 billion. It was the second session with a gain of around 1% for the Ibovespa, although it was more comfortable near the closing, with the turn in New York. Even so, it now accumulates an advance of 2.03% in the week and 4.08% in the month.
During the session, it managed to overcome the important barrier of 109,400 points, without being able to sustain it at the close due to the worsening in Wall Street. According to a graphic analysis by Itaú BBA, this threshold is like a “watershed” that can “define a rally for the stock market at the beginning of the year”. “If that happens, the upside potential is at 114,500, 121,300 and 132,000 points”, adds the text, in which the less favorable moment for the American market is noted, in a bearish bias since the “hawkish” minutes of the Federal Reserve, from the last day 5. “On the bearish side, the Bovespa index finds support at 104,900, 103,300 and 100,000 points”, highlights the report, by analysts Fábio Perina and Lucas Piza.
“The market followed the improvement abroad, from Europe to New York. In the afternoon, the speech by Campos Neto (BC president) about the yield curve, which would show that the upward cycle is coming to an end, was enough for the market to begin to understand that this monetary tightening that the Central Bank has been doing could be effectively coming to an end”, says Rodrigo Moliterno, head of equity at Veedha Investimentos.
“Thus, there was a rotation of sectors in the session, with the departure of basic materials towards sectors that are more backward and dependent on the domestic economy, such as consumption, real estate and civil construction”, he adds, drawing attention to the “small caps” performing above of the Ibovespa. “In general, the multiples show room for continued recovery (of the Stock Exchange).”
In the macro scenario, although the “fiscal side” remains “sensitive”, with the market still attentive to “possible noise”, the accumulated discounts on B3 and the recovery up to a certain point also seen in New York are positive for the resumption of demand for actions, with investors having welcomed, since Wednesday, the reiteration that the leader in presidential polls, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, intends to have Geraldo Alckmin as his deputy, in a “nod closer to the center”, notes Nova Futura Investimentos in a note.
“We tend to compare it with the last elections, when the debate started in the center and gradually became polarized. Now we have a very polarized situation with some candidates signaling that they can move towards the center”, said this Thursday, during participation in the Santander Latin American Annual Conference, the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, in which he commented that the “polarization of the election already affects the exchange rate volatility a little”. This Thursday, the spot dollar fluctuated below R$5.40, to R$5.3795 at the lowest, but closed the day at R$5.4165, still down 0.90%.
At the best moment of the afternoon, during Campos Neto’s speech, the Ibovespa sought to get closer to 110,000, at 109,873.35 points, up 1.72%, the highest intraday level since October 21, then at 110,767.14 points. . Comments by the BC president on inflation and fiscal, during the Santander event, contributed to placing interest rates at the lowest of the day, just before the B3 benchmark seeks a new high for the session.
At the top of the Ibovespa, we highlight another day of recovery for the Banco Inter Unit, up 13.16%, ahead of CVC (+10.47%) and Petz (+9.71%) in the session . On the opposite side, Carrefour Brasil lost 2.59%, Suzano, 2.49%, and Gerdau Metalúrgica, 1.73%. Among the blue chips, Petrobras ON and PN closed respectively up 0.64% and 0.73%, even with a downward oscillation in oil, on a day that was negative for Vale (ON -1.70%) and for most of the shares of large banks, with the exception of BB ON (+0.61%).
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