“OPEC + supplies are expected to contract in light of the pressure of sanctions on Russia,” the Paris-based agency added in its monthly report on oil.
“It seems that global oil supplies will exceed demand in the first half of 2023, but the balance may quickly turn into a deficit with the recovery of demand and with the interruption of some Russian production,” the agency added.
Oil exports have not been affected significantly so far by the international sanctions imposed on Russia with the aim of depriving it of financing after the Ukraine crisis, as it fell in January by only 160,000 barrels per day from its pre-war levels.
But the International Energy Agency said about one million barrels per day of production will stop by the end of the first quarter, after a European ban on seaborne imports and sanctions that imposed a price ceiling.
OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 by 100,000 barrels per day compared to last month’s expectations, to reach 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023.
This is the first upward revision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in months, noting China’s easing of anti-COVID-19 restrictions and a slightly stronger outlook for the global economy.
OPEC said in its monthly report, published on Tuesday, that: “The key to oil demand growth in 2023 will be China’s return from restrictions on movement and its impact on the country, the region and the world.”
OPEC expected China’s oil demand to rise by 590,000 barrels per day in 2023, after a decline in 2022.
She pointed out that “the concern relates to the depth and pace of economic recovery in China and the consequent impact on oil demand.”
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