The Brazil team would have played more on Tuesday afternoon (Dec 13) if they had advanced in the World Cup
The PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution) that breaches the spending ceiling may be voted on by the Chamber of Deputies on Tuesday (13.Dec.2022), one day earlier than initially planned. The reason is the elimination of the Brazilian team from the World Cup in Qatar.
With the exit from the competition, the Brazilian team will no longer play on the afternoon of Tuesday. This loophole can be used for the analysis of the ceiling-hole PEC.
The process would begin with the reading of the text at the CCJ (Commission on Constitution, Justice and Citizenship). But the Power360 found it more likely that the project will be attached to the PEC 24th of 2019which is ready for a vote in plenary and is ruled for Monday (12.Dec). In both cases, the procedure must begin on one day and end on the next. Therefore, the voting should only be finalized on Wednesday (14.Dec).
It is a consensus in the PT and in the political world that the processing of the PEC fury-ceiling will be more complicated than in the Senate, where the president-elect, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT), had an expressive victory. The proposal was passed by senators on Dec. with 16 votes against in the 1st round and 13 in the 2nd – in both rounds the votes in favor were 64. The text that came out of the Senate represents fiscal impact of more than BRL 200 billion🇧🇷
However, even in the Senate, Lula’s victory was narrow on a very relevant item: the validity of 2 years for the PEC fura-teto. The next government’s allies had 55 out of a possible 81 votes – just 6 more than necessary.
It is for this reason that Lula’s opponents in the Chamber are betting on concentrating efforts only on an attempt to reduce the validity of the PEC from 2 to 1 year. About 40% of the current deputies do not return in 2023. This contingent is very difficult to be co-opted by the lulistas.
Another factor may complicate the vote on the PEC in the Chamber. The deputies, under the command of the President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), first want to know if the STF (Federal Supreme Court) is really going to overturn the so-called rapporteur amendments.
This device allows the Budget rapporteur and congressional chiefs to make amendments worth approximately R$ 20 billion in 2023.
The STF judgment is on Wednesday (14.Dec). Therefore, it will not be a surprise if there is any delay in the PEC process. According to Power360 found out, there is expectation in the Chamber that the ministers of the Supreme ask for a view (more time for analysis of the matter) and leave the vote for 2023. It would be seen as a vote of confidence for the congressmen.
If the rapporteur’s amendments are considered unconstitutional by the STF this week, deputies should try to include the device in the PEC. The leader of the Government in the House, Ricardo Barros (PP-PR), reached defend the inclusion in the text to try “to save” the amendments. Thus, they would be constitutional. So far, the idea has not gone ahead.
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