An interesting picture. In some ways revolutionary. A return to the past, at the time of the challenges between Prodi and Berlusconi with the revenge of Bersani. The pollster Alessandro Amadori he elaborated for Affaritaliani.it the current electoral trends projecting them on 2023 trying to understand what the results of the political elections could be if it reached the end of the legislature.
The trend is definitely positive for the Center Left with the Democratic party which in the spring of 2023 could return to the levels of the Bersani era, before Count I, or on 24%. Bersani seemed the loser, by Renzi and by the rigidity-arrogance of the 5 Stars, and now he takes his revenge.
The ‘bushes’ of the Democratic Party, LeU And More Europe, maintain their niche and could reach 2.5%. Together the center-left could reach 29%.
The 5 Star Movement it is inevitably in a downward trend, not a collapse, and will in any case remain a point of reference for that area of economic and social marginality, of the people of citizenship income. In addition to a non-right-wing protest party. The M5S in spring 2023 could be worth around 14.5%.
The Pd + bushes + M5S area overall could amount to 43.5%, a very high and competitive share and which proves Bersani and his theory of the wide field right. A return to the past.
Let’s move to the center. Italy Viva it is more toned than it was months ago and Renzi is recovering thanks to that “I told you so” – that Count I and II were not right and that Draghi was the best solution. Italia Viva could be worth 4%, above the European threshold too. Action di Calenda is certainly the emerging and growing phenomenon estimated at 4.5%. Together, the central area could be worth 8.5% and could have in hand, with this electoral law and even more so if we went back to proportional, the golden share of the next government and the next legislature. A return to the archetype of Mastella and Buttiglione which, in version 4.0, are today and will be in 2023 Renzi and Calenda.
In the center-right there is an evident transfer of votes from the League that is deflating and that in the spring of 2023 could be worth when the M5S, or 14.5%. Come on Italy, apparently non-existent as a presence and political communication, will take advantage of the drop in the League and could rise up to 9%. Brothers of Italy, suffered the blow of the ceiling of this strange autumn, could confirm 20.5%. Even for the Center-right – estimated at 44% – Bersani’s lesson is valid: think on the wide field as there is no longer the effect of the locomotive party, which was previously the Lega and which could have been the Brothers of Italy. Reasoning like Bersani means trying to expand also to the 1.5% party which in this scenario can be very useful.
The other parties overall it could be around 4%.
In summary, the parties that were part of the Count I, of that unnatural alliance that shouldn’t have been made, are both paying off and are in danger of halving their maximum. Conte’s personal statement corresponds to a deflation of M5S and Lega.