Elections, misinformation and conspiracy theories: challenges facing the world in 2024

Billions of people will vote in major elections this year—about half the world's population, some estimates suggest—in one of the largest and most consequential democratic exercises in living memory. The results will affect the way the world will operate for decades to come.

At the same time, false narratives and conspiracy theories have become an increasingly global threat.

Unfounded accusations of electoral fraud have damaged confidence in democracy. Foreign influence campaigns regularly target polarizing domestic challenges. Artificial intelligence has boosted disinformation efforts and distorted perceptions of reality. All this while the main social media companies have reduced their safeguards and reduced the size of their electoral teams.

“Almost all democracies are under pressure, regardless of technology,” said Darrell M. West, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington. “When you add misinformation to that, it just creates a lot of opportunities for tricks.”

It is, he said, a “perfect storm of misinformation.”

The stakes are enormous.

Democracy, which spread globally after the end of the Cold War, faces growing challenges around the world—from mass migration to climate disruption, from economic inequalities to war. The fact that many countries struggle to adequately respond to these tests has eroded trust in liberal and pluralistic societies, opening the door to calls from populists and warlord leaders.

Autocratic countries, led by Russia and China, have harnessed currents of political discontent to promote narratives that undermine democratic governance and leadership, often sponsoring disinformation campaigns. If those efforts are successful, the elections could accelerate the recent rise in authoritarianism. Fyodor A. Lukyanov, an analyst at the Foreign and Defense Policy Council, a Kremlin-aligned think tank in Moscow, said 2024 “could be the year in which Western liberal elites lose control of the world order.”

Among the biggest sources of misinformation in elections are autocratic governments. Experts say Russia, China and Iran are likely to try to disrupt elections in other countries, including this year's US presidential election. Countries see this year as “a real opportunity to embarrass ourselves on the world stage, exploit social divisions and simply undermine the democratic process,” said Brian Liston, digital security analyst at Recorded Future.

The company examined a Russian influence effort that Meta identified last year, called Doppelgänger, that appeared to impersonate international news organizations and create fake accounts to spread Russian propaganda in the United States and Europe. Doppelgänger appeared to have used artificial intelligence to create media outlets dedicated to American politics, with names like Election Watch and My Pride.

Conspiracy theories — such as claims that the United States operates secret biological weapons factories in Ukraine — have sought to discredit American and European influence around the world. They could appear in Urdu in Pakistan and also emerge, with different characters and language, in Russia, changing opinion in those countries in favor of anti-Western politicians.

An increasingly polarized environment is generating hate speech and misinformation, which further polarize voters. A motivated minority of extremist voices, aided by social media that reinforces users' prejudices, is often drowning out a moderate majority.

Some of the most extreme voices seek out each other on alternative social media platforms like Telegram and Truth Social. Calls to preemptively stop voter fraud — which is historically statistically insignificant — recently became a trend on those platforms, according to Pyrra, a company that monitors threats and misinformation.

Artificial intelligence “holds promise for democratic governance,” says a report from the University of Chicago and Stanford University in California. Politically focused chatbots could inform voters on key issues and better connect voters with elected officials.

Technology could also be a vector for misinformation. Fake AI images have spread conspiracy theories such as the baseless claim of a global plot to replace white Europeans with non-white immigrants.

Lawrence Norden, who directs the elections program at the Brennan Center for Justice, a public policy institute in New York, said AI could imitate large amounts of election office materials and disseminate them widely. Or it could manufacture late surprises, like the audio hinting at AI intervention released during Slovakia's close elections in the fall.

“All the things that have long been threats to our democracy are potentially made worse by AI,” Norden said at an online panel in November.

Some experts worry that the mere presence of AI tools could undermine trust in information and allow political actors to dismiss real content.

Others said fears, for now, are exaggerated. Artificial intelligence is “just one of many threats,” said James M. Lindsay, senior vice president of the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “I wouldn't lose sight of all the old-fashioned ways of spreading misinformation,” he said.

In countries with general elections scheduled for this year, misinformation has become a major concern for a large majority of people surveyed by UNESCO, the United Nations cultural organization. And yet, social media's efforts to limit toxic content have recently slowed, if not reversed. Meta, YouTube and

Some offer new features, such as one-way private transmissions, which are particularly difficult to monitor. Meta and YouTube said they were working to protect the integrity of the election.

Nora Benavidez, senior counsel at Free Press, said social media companies are starting the year with “little bandwidth, very little written accountability, and billions of people around the world turning to these platforms for of information”—which is not ideal for safeguarding democracy.

By: This article was written by Tiffany Hsu, Stuart A. Thompson and Steven Lee Myers