Majority and center-right government
The election of the President of the Republic is now imminent, but the parties are already looking to the political elections. Affaritaliani.it publishes the estimates of Roberto Baldassari, general manager of Lab210, on the result of the vote should the polls go to the beginning of 2023, at the natural end of the legislature. There are two premises: Mario Draghi remains at Palazzo Chigi, and therefore does not become Head of State, and the electoral law does not change, therefore the Rosatellum remains (mix of proportional and single-member majority).
The first coalition would be, in 2023, the Center-right with a fork between 43 and 47% and the possibility of a majority in both houses of Parliament, even if not large (about 105-110 senators and 215-225 deputies). First party of the coalition the League with an estimate between 17 and 21%. In second place, very close to the Carroccio, Brothers of Italy with 15-19%. Forza Italia between 6 and 8%. Others from the center 1-3%.
The Democratic party, with the return of Article 1, it would be the first political force in the country with a fork between 22 and 26%. Bad the 5 Star Movement by Giuseppe Conte, which would drop between 11 and 15%. Others of Center left between 1 and 3%. Total coalition between 37 and 41%.
Then i centrists. Carlo Calenda share between 3 and 5%. Then Italia Viva by Matteo Renzi and other centrists both between 2 and 4%. Total 9-11%. The voice of other parties is very strong, among which there could also be a movement of the former M5S led by Alessandro Di Battista, estimate at 5-7%.
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