El Salvador is getting ready to go to the polls, with Bukele seeking a controversial re-election

The elections this Sunday, February 4 in El Salvador are marked by the controversial candidacy of the current president, Nayib Bukele, who won in 2019 with 53% support. The presidential election is the seventh to be held since the 1992 Peace Accords, which put an end to the civil war that began in 1980, and the first in which a leader stands for re-election in the young democracy.

This Sunday more than 5.5 million people are called to the polls. Within the national territory, the vote will be in person, the voting centers will be open from 7:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., local time, and citizens can consult their voting center on the portal of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), in charge of organizing and supervising the elections.

In addition, 1.1 million Salvadorans will also be able to vote from abroad electronically on the TSE platform with their identity document. This modality has been active since January 6 and the virtual polls will close coinciding with in-person hours in the country, that is, at 5:00 p.m., local time.

The president of the TSE, Dora Martinez de Barahona, has indicated that preliminary results should already be known within the first two hours after the polls close. “If the elections were held now, at this time of night (6:30 p.m.) we would already know the voting trend at 80% in the presidential elections,” she said on January 28 after a mock election.

In the country, dry law applies for elections, that is, the sale and distribution of alcoholic substances is prohibited. The regulations are in force from 00:00 on Saturday, February 3 and will extend until 23:00 on Monday, February 5. Failure to comply with the rule will be punished by the TSE with a fine of one minimum wage (about $365).

Candidates for the Presidency, with a clear favorite

Nayib Bukelethe current 42-year-old president and head of the party New ideas, is running for re-election as a favorite. According to a survey by the University Institute of Public Opinion (Iudop), Bukele would win the elections with 81% of the votes, the other five candidates on the ballot would not gather more than 12.2% together.

Manuel Flores, of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) – once one of the most powerful parties in the country – would have second place, according to Iudop, with only 4.2% of the voting intention. The leftist candidate FMLN He served as mayor of Quezaltepeque between 2003 and 2012 and then, between 2012 and 2021, held a seat in the Legislative Assembly.

Businessman Joel Sanchez55 years old, appears alongside the right-wing party Sand, who ruled the country for 20 years. She would occupy third place with 3.4% voting intention, according to Iudop.

Luis Parada63 years old, is a politician, former military man and lawyer who runs for the party Our time, of social democratic tendency. The polls show him 2.5% of the voting intention.

Jose Renderosof Solidarity Force, is a doctor by profession and in 2018 he ran for Mayor of San Miguel for the Arena party. He would only have 1.1% of the votes according to Iudop.

The architect Mariana Murillo She is the only woman competing for the Presidency of El Salvador, she does so with Salvadoran Patriot Fraternity and would gather 1% of the votes.

Elections to a reduced Legislative Assembly

For the first time in three decades, this February 4, citizens elect 60 deputies who will make up the Legislative Assembly. These 60 legislators will represent citizens for 14 electoral districts, or departments.

This is so after, in 2023, the majority of Nuevas Ideas in the Chamber and its allies voted to modify the number of legislators from 84 to 60, who will constitute the new Congress as of May 1. This change was made after they also repealed article 291-A of the Electoral Code, which prohibited making changes to electoral legislation in the year prior to the elections.

The repeal of article 291-A not only allowed the number of deputies for each department to be modified, but also the way in which the seats are distributed among the different parties.

The reform of the electoral code has sparked criticism among those who maintain that it was a maneuver to ensure that Nuevas Ideas did not lose power in the Chamberwhich has allowed in recent years to make substantial changes in the Judiciary and other spheres of the State, promoted by Bukele and his allies.

For the elections to the Legislative Assembly there are 11 political parties registered, however, Nuevas Ideas would sweep 57 of the 60 seats at stake, according to what the Iudop predicts.

Bukele candidacy

Bukele is the first president to seek re-election in the country since the establishment of democracy. He does so despite the fact that the Magna Carta indicates that those who have served a presidential term cannot be president “not even one more day” (Art. 154) and that any president who has been in office for more than six months, consecutive or not, “may not be a candidate” for the Presidency (Art. 152).

However, in 2021 Nuevas Ideas obtained the majority in Congress (56 of the 84 deputies in the chamber) and after that the bench undertook changes in the Supreme Court and in its Constitutional Chamber, as well as in the Attorney General's Office. , and appointed related officials, something for which his detractors point out that Bukele and his party have ended the separation of powers in the country.

That same year, the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice, modified at the discretion of Nuevas Ideas and with judges related to Bukelism, made an interpretation of the Constitution with which it endorsed that the president could run as a candidate for a second term. if he retired from his duties six months before the end of the period.

Human rights, state of emergency and guarantees of fair elections

The elections have been held amid a state of emergency since March 2022, approved and postponed by the Assembly until the present. During this time, the Army and Police, controlled by Bukele, have arrested 73,000 alleged members of criminal gangs.

Bukele defends that his security policy has returned security to the country (from 36 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2019 to 2.4 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023) and this has earned him the admiration of a large part of the population. However, organizations such as Human Rights Watch and the United Nations have warned of arbitrary arrests, torture and deaths in prison. Bukele has acknowledged that of the 73,000 detainees, 7,000 were innocent, but this figure could be higher.

Meanwhile, some voices, such as the Observa El Salvador university consortium, accuse the Ministry of Finance and the TSE of not having distributed the financing quotas that corresponded to the different parties. It also indicates that Nuevas Ideas concentrates 97% of the propaganda that has been broadcast by the media.

This and other criticisms, such as the change to the Electoral Code before the elections, question whether the elections are carried out fairly. For now, the Legislative Assembly will begin sessions with its new members on May 1 and the candidate elected as president will take office on June 1.