A spokesman for the US State Department, Ned Price, had made it clear that the meeting of the bilateral advisory committee was already being prepared through secret meetings during the last period in order to thwart any nuclear development in the Ukrainian-Russian crisis.
The New START treaty, which was signed in 2011, restored cooperation and joint leadership between the United States and Russia in the field of nuclear weapons control, and made progress in relations between the two countries before they became strained with the start of the Russian operation in Ukraine.
Despite the prevailing tension between Moscow and Washington, the latter is trying to find solutions that prevent any nuclear escalation. Here, Dr. Abu Bakr El-Deeb, a researcher in international relations and head of the Arab Thought Development Research Forum, says that both countries seek not to escalate, at least for the time being, and about choosing the Middle East and the Egyptian capital. Especially for hosting those negotiations, I attribute it to several reasons:
- The choice of Cairo came after its successful hosting of the COP 27 World Climate Summit.
- The presence of these talks for the first time in the Middle East confirms the region’s regional role.
- The Middle East has already become a major and effective player in international crises, and we should not forget the previous role of the UAE and Saudi Arabia in the prisoner agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
- The Middle East is considered a neutral zone after Geneva, which was hosting those talks, joined the Western sanctions against Moscow.
- It also affirms the appreciation of the major countries for Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and his distinguished relations with all international parties.
The head of the Forum for the Development of Arab Thought for Research confirmed, during his statements to “Sky News Arabia”, that if this round of talks succeeds, it will open the door further to the possibility of direct Russian-Ukrainian talks soon and a cease-fire, albeit temporarily.
Treaty talks scenarios
The “New START” treaty is the only one left to control nuclear weapons between the two countries, after their withdrawal in 2019 from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Weapons Treaty signed between them in 1987; Where the agreement requires the two parties to conduct inspections at the bases in which the weapons are located, in addition to exchanging data to verify compliance with the terms of the treaty. It also provides for an annual exchange of the number of weapons subject to the agreement. The treaty provides for 18 inspections within the sites annually.
Last March, Moscow announced a temporary suspension to allow inspection of its facilities, which Washington considered an explicit withdrawal from the treaty, but to explain the Russian position, the Russian researcher in the history of international relations, Solonov Plavrev, says that what Moscow did is not against the agreement for several reasons:
- Moscow temporarily froze the inspection and this is a normal reaction in light of the Russian military operation and the position of Washington.
- Russia uses the treaty as an explicit pressure tool to ease the sanctions imposed by Washington.
- Moscow is still committed to all of the provisions of the treaty, which is actually the most important among the nuclear arms reduction treaties.
As for the American side, Moscow believes that Moscow is trying to back down from its obligations to the treaty in light of its recent constant hints of the possibility of using “tactical” nuclear weapons in Ukraine, in addition to Moscow’s recent introduction into service of new qualitative capabilities in the field of nuclear weapons, such as the “Poseidon” torpedo and the hyper-missile. My voice is “Tsirkon”.
With regard to the expected scenarios for the upcoming Cairo talks between Washington and Moscow, Solonov Plavrev says, during his statements to “Sky News Arabia”, that there are 3 scenarios for that treaty:
First: Reaching a supplementary or temporary agreement attached to the treaty in order to prevent the nuclear race and ease sanctions.
Second: Freezing the treaty permanently, and this is unlikely in light of the rapprochement that Moscow and Washington witnessed from talks over the course of weeks.
Third: Prolonging the talks so that the two parties can use them as a pressure card to reach a settlement to the Ukrainian crisis, which is the basis for the escalation.
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