Editorial The price of Lukashenko’s desire for power was the independence of Belarus

Editorial|Editorial

Belarus the Department of Defense released information over the weekend that had already been anticipated. The ministry confirmed that Russian troops would remain in Belarus even after the military exercise that ended on Sunday, despite all previous assurances.

NATO estimates that Belarus now has about 30,000 Russian troops, which is a sad additional threat to Ukraine. Because of them, Ukraine must also prepare for the northern front, which is still located near the capital, Kiev.

At the same time, Russian troops emphasize how tight Russia already has a grip on Belarus. The grip began to tighten in early autumn 2020, when Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko defeated protests that had begun to deceive the presidential election with brutal violence. The warm-up of relations with Belarus in the West ended like a wall.

Lukashenko maintained his position with the support of Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is notoriously not free, nor was it this time.

The price will be paid when a referendum on a new constitution is held in Belarus next Sunday. It seems to be concretizing Lukashenko’s position, but the idea of ​​changing the constitution came from Russia, which is already preparing for a change of power in Belarus. It is good for Russia that references to Belarus’s neutrality and nuclear disarmament are being removed from the new constitution.

The referendum in Belarus is important for Russia. The referendum will allow Russia to justify future changes to Belarus as “legal,” even though the referendum is becoming a mockery of democracy. Even those who have slightly criticized the changes have been arrested, and even the names of election officials are a secret. Moreover, Belarus is now such a brutal police state that Russian troops are not needed to intimidate Belarusians.

West has not yet completely abandoned the search for a diplomatic solution to the crisis in Ukraine, although hope has waned for many. Belarus, on the other hand, is now certain of Russia.

Belarus, of course, has always been dependent on Russia, and at no point has the country really swayed between Russia and the West. However, Lukashenko managed to keep Russian combat forces out of the country despite the state union between Russia and Belarus.

It was important to the West. The West feared that Russian troops were threatening the Suwałki corridor, the Polish-Lithuanian border, which is the only land link between the Baltic States and the rest of the European Union and NATO. Another concern of the West was the placement of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, where they have strategic locations in the Soviet Union.

Now Belarus has Russian troops, in addition to which the Belarusian army is beginning to be fully integrated into the Russian army. The legal brakes on the transfer of nuclear weapons to Belarus will soon be lifted.

Thus, the security situation in Europe has already changed permanently, regardless of whether Russia launches a new invasion of Ukraine. Avoiding the outbreak of war does not mean going back to the former.

This change affects the Baltic Sea region in particular, as Belarus is a border neighbor of Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Finland will not escape the consequences either.

Belarus getting on a tough occasion is Russia’s old goal. There is a desire to restore the empire, a Great Russian belief that the East Slavs belong together, and Putin’s belief in the exceptional nature of his own role, but also a military strategic calculation. Just like in the case of Ukraine.

As far as Belarus is concerned, Russia has now succeeded. The price of Lukashenko’s desire for power was the independence of Belarus.

The editorials are HS’s statements on a topical issue. The writings are prepared by HS’s editorial staff and reflect the magazine principle.