Drought could trigger 80% of thermal power plants, says Silveira

The Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveirastated that the worsening drought should trigger the activation of 70% to 80% of the country’s thermal power plants. The forecast is for October and November, months at the end of the dry season, when hydroelectric power levels should be even lower and consumption tends to increase with the rise in temperatures.

“We are taking mitigating measures to keep the reservoirs capable of responding, but our national thermal park is prepared and will be fully activated if necessary. And I believe that this will be necessary this year. We will activate those that were able to dispatch. I believe that we will need something between 70% and 80% of the almost 20 GW of capacity of our thermal park for the end of the dry season.”he said.

The statement was given in an interview with CNN Brazilshown on the evening of this Saturday (31.Aug.2024). The minister stated that the situation of the reservoirs is worrying, especially for the coming months, for energy supply during peak consumption times.

The biggest problem It is in the late afternoon and early evening. From 5 pm onwards, the electrical system stops relying on solar generation and around 30 GW leave the system in a matter of minutes. Consumption at the same time is increasing, with consumers arriving home and turning on electric showers and other appliances.

At this time, the ONS (National Electric System Operator) activates hydroelectric plants to increase generation and turns on some thermal plants. However, with rainfall below expectations and reduced availability of water resources, it is increasingly necessary to resort to thermal plants. And this should increase until the end of the dry season.

As shown by the Poder360since February the ONS has been warning about the projection of low flow of the plants for the dry season this year. This month, he suggested to the government that it will be necessary extra measures to ensure supply electricity at peak demand times (such as late afternoon), such as anticipating the dispatch of thermal plants and postponing plant maintenance.

Currently, 4 of the country’s main hydroelectric plants with reservoirs are at levels around 20%. At the Furnas plant, one of the largest in Brazil, the level is at 50%. In the Southeast/Central-West subsystem, where 70% of the main reservoirs of the electrical system are located, the average is 56%.

The entity has been reporting for some months now that the inflow, that is, the volume of water that reaches the reservoir of a hydroelectric plant and that can be transformed into energy, is below the MLT (Long Term Average), an average verified over a history of 94 years of measurements.

Red flag raised

The worsening drought combined with the forecast of high demand in September made the Aneel (National Electric Energy Agency) activate the red flag level 2 for September. It is the first time in 3 years that this level will be used in the country.

This means that there will be an additional charge on the electricity bill of R$7.87 for every 100 KWh (kilowatt-hour) consumed. This is a significant extra charge that will weigh on consumers’ pockets in a month of intense heat. The measure is also expected to impact the inflation rate next month.

The last time the electricity bill had a red flag was in August 2021, when level 2 was in effect. From September 2021 to April 2022, there was temporarily an even higher level flag, that of water scarcity (also called the black flag), which was extinguished.

According to Aneel, conditions for power generation are less favorable due to the worsening of the dry season. The red flag was raised for September due to the forecast of below-average rainfall until the end of the year (by around 50%) and the expectation of growth in energy consumption in the same period.

“This scenario of scarce rainfall, combined with winter temperatures above the historical average for the period, means that thermal plants, which have more expensive energy than hydroelectric plants, will start to operate more”Aneel reported in a statement.