02/01/2024 – 9:49
The dollar operates higher this Tuesday morning, 2nd, in line with the appreciation of the yields of Treasuries and the American currency abroad. However, the dollar's internal rise is tempered by the firm gains in oil and iron ore this Tuesday.
Outside, the dollar accelerated gains against the euro and the pound this morning, pushing the DXY index to renew its intraday high, while Treasury interest rates advanced, after ending 2023 without a single direction. The American currency also advances against several emerging and commodity-linked currencies.
Investors are waiting for new indicators from the US to assess when the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) could start reducing interest rates. Today the final reading of the industrial PMI measured by S&P Global and data on investment in construction comes out, but the highlights of the week are the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting, on Wednesday, 3, and the US payroll report, on Friday. For now, bets are that the Fed's first rate cut will come in March. Here, the expectation is for further cuts in the Selic rate by 0.50 percentage points at the next Copom meetings of the Central Bank.
In the local market, investors analyze the Focus bulletin, after the acceleration of the Weekly Consumer Price Index (IPC-S) in December. In Focus, the expectation for annual inflation in 2023 remained at 4.46%. A month earlier, the median was 4.54%. For 2024, the focus of monetary policy, the IPCA projection changed slightly, from 3.91% to 3.90%. A month ago, it was at 3.92%.
On the local scene, the fiscal issue remains in focus, especially because of Congress's opposition to the Provisional Measure (MP) that deals with compensation for the extension of payroll tax relief until 2027.
At 9:25 am, the dollar in cash rose 0.26%, to R$4.8658. The dollar for February gained 0.26%, at R$54.8795.
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