No one expected it, no one had it on their radar. 24 hours later, disbelief and confusion still prevail in Venezuela. On the eve of the elections, Nicolás Maduro has publicly announced his intention to resume negotiations with the White House that, at least at this point, seemed dead and buried. In Qatar and later in Barbados, with the Venezuelan opposition as a third negotiating actor, the two countries agreed to set a date for the presidential elections, release prisoners and allow the registration of anti-Chavez candidates. In exchange, the White House would facilitate oil licenses and gold transactions. Almost none of this was implemented, neither on one side nor the other. The pressure on the opposition did not ease and Joe Biden’s administration reversed the concessions it had made. This chapter, around July 28, seemed closed, but, in a move that has taken by surprise, Maduro says he is willing to sit down at the table again with Washington.
The White House has received the offer coldly and has not even clarified whether it knew in advance of Maduro’s willingness. “As we have said, we welcome dialogue in good faith. We are clear that democratic change will not be easy and that it requires a serious commitment. We remain committed to supporting the will of the people of Venezuela and a path toward democratic governance through competitive and inclusive elections,” the State Department said in a statement on Tuesday. Jorge Rodríguez, Maduro’s top political operator, has been appointed to hold these talks, which, if they are to have a real impact on the presidential elections, will have to begin immediately.
Caracas woke up in turmoil on Tuesday. Politicians, diplomats, opposition members, advisors, ambassadors, pollsters and even people from within Chavismo who do not belong to Maduro’s inner circle were trying to decipher what the president intends with this move. The most widespread theory, and the most obvious, is that Chavismo is trying to legitimize these elections at an international level, from which it can be deduced that it is convinced of beating Edmundo González Urrutia, the consensus candidate to whom the opposition leader, the disqualified María Corina Machado, has ceded all her political capital. Maduro’s entourage has received the news with enthusiasm. “It is an excellent move,” concede sources close to the government. These same sources point out that, although the polls are not in their favour, they can overtake Edmundo in the three weeks remaining, in a context in which the opposition is at a disadvantage as it has no presence in the local media, does not have witnesses in all the polling stations and Edmundo’s face only appears in three boxes on the ballot where people have to vote, compared to Maduro’s 13. In addition, other non-Chavez candidates will receive votes – it is estimated that there are around a million – which, in real terms, benefit the government.
There are fewer who make a less positive reading for Maduro’s interests. Victor Alvarez, Minister of Basic Industries under Hugo Chavez and an economist with a deep knowledge of the Chavista universe, has written an analysis in which he states that the government is preparing for the worst scenario: losing the elections. “Given this probable outcome,” says Alvarez, “it has to take precautions and negotiate an agreement guaranteeing non-political persecution.” “If the electoral defeat of those in government turns into a wave of persecution, trials and convictions, to avoid this tragedy they will prefer to cling to power,” he continues.
For this reason, other countries have insisted on the signing of a “political peace” agreement starting on July 28. The document wants to state that whoever loses must accept the results and that the winner agrees not to pursue the losers with the State machinery. Gustavo Petro has been working very hard on this agreement, through his ambassador in Caracas, Milton Rengifo – very close to the president – and the foreign minister, Luis Gilberto Murillo, who has full powers in foreign policy and is one of the Government’s strongest pawns.
The draft of this agreement, advanced by this newspaper and Also confirmed by Luz Mely Reyes in Efecto Cocuyoinitially contained a referendum parallel to the elections, but another route was chosen because there was no time to organize it. According to sources familiar with this attempt, almost an obsession of Petro, the idea is that the Colombian president would travel to Caracas to give this document in person to Maduro. With Washington’s entry into the scene, all these pieces have to fit together. The time has come for the art of diplomacy and persuasion.
Thus, Álvarez believes that the US has the power to prevent Chavismo from opting for desperate measures, such as removing Edmundo from the presidential race. In that case, the elections would be doomed. “To this end, (Washington) is called upon to make Maduro a credible offer to remove the rewards, personal sanctions and international judicial persecution. Otherwise, the government will not expose itself to the release of the demons of revenge and the unleashing of a witch hunt against it,” writes the former Chavista leader.
The spectre of the elections not being held also haunts this offer to the White House. Chavismo could settle this discussion with Biden’s team by concluding that there is no real desire to have the economic sanctions lifted and use that argument to postpone them. Chavismo, according to some analysts, has polls that give it an overwhelming defeat. In this case, in the Miraflores Palace, the presidential residence, there is no hurry to submit to the judgment of the polls. Or, once the elections are held, it could happen as in Barinas, a region where the opposition won during the regional elections and the winning candidate was disqualified. They were repeated with other contenders and the anti-Chavez side won again. In any case, all scenarios are possible, nothing is ruled out. And no one even dares to predict; the situation in Venezuela has entered uncharted territory.
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