Political scientist Bridge: Presidential elections in Turkey may go to the second round
The situation in Turkey’s opposition parties is complicated by the lack of a politician who could represent them all to compete with current leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the upcoming presidential election. Dmitry Bridge, a political scientist and expert on the Middle East, told Lente.ru about Erdogan’s potential competitors in the elections.
Traditional opposition
For the traditional opposition, namely the Republican People’s Party “CHP” and the opposition alliance or “table of six”, as it is now called, there are two possible paths in this election, the political scientist noted. Present a consensus candidate supported by all parties, or go to the polls with several candidates, as they did before. “But because of this, the opposition lost the elections,” Bridget stressed.
Offering an agreed-upon opposition candidate in the election seems like a logical option, he said, as it maximizes her chances of winning, but reaching consensus on the issue is extremely difficult.
The six opposition parties come from different and sometimes conflicting backgrounds and are mostly united by Erdogan’s competition and the idea of a return to a parliamentary system, but this does not help bridge the ideological trust gap between them. For this reason, it will not be possible to present the name of a prominent politician, especially the heads of parties, as a consensus candidate from the opposition. This will mean the victory of one of the parties, not the entire opposition
As part of this path, on the “table of six” is a proposal to present an independent figure without political ambitions, far from the six parties, the political scientist shared. “The difficulties of this path lie in the possibility of finding a truly independent figure at the same distance from all parties, but at the same time known and able to compete with Erdogan,” Bridge is convinced.
Unwillingness or inability to present an agreed candidate, in his opinion, will mean a large number of candidates competing with Erdogan. And new and small parties are also interested in nominating their own candidates, as this increases their chances in parliamentary elections.
Non-traditional opposition
CHP and Table Six are not Erdogan’s only competitors. Some other parties are not part of the six-party structure that brings together the main opposition parties, and it is unlikely that they will join it before the elections. Therefore, most likely, they will nominate their own candidate from the party, the expert said.
“At the forefront of these parties are the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HPD), which is under threat of being banned because of a lawsuit filed against it in the Constitutional Court, as well as a party led by Muharrem Ince, which is likely to present a candidate in presidents,” he said.
Related materials:
There is a chance to gain certain votes by taking them away from Erdogan, from Yeniden Rafah Partisi, which is headed by the son of former Turkish Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, Fatih Erbakan, the political scientist believes. However, he is not a powerful competitor, as he is promoting the same agenda as Erdogan’s party.
“He also has an initiative to resolve the Syrian conflict and rapprochement with Iran. Yeniden Refah Partisi also raised the theme of the unification of the Islamic world and the unification of the Turkic peoples and countries. They are going to affect both nationalists and Islamists in Turkey by this in the elections, which will allow them to gain certain votes, but this direction is now used by both the Nationalist Movement Party of Turkey and Erdogan’s party, ”the political scientist explained.
Possible candidates
Five parties are known to have backed Republican Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s desire to run on their behalf, and many allies believe he has a chance of winning, Brice shared. In addition, Ahmet Davutoglu, the head of the party of the future, announced his intention to run for president, but “only if the six-party table agrees on an agreed candidate.”
“The Democracy and Progress Party has declared that it will participate in the elections individually and with its own name and slogan, “remaining committed to a table for six people.” There is also talk that the head of the Good Party, Meral Aksener, can run as an agreed candidate or on behalf of his party,” the expert said.
Most likely, the presidential elections will require a second round, he is convinced. And this motivates party leaders, especially large ones, to become candidates who will compete with Erdogan in the second round in an attempt to collect votes from all opposition parties in order to ensure victory.
Earlier, Bloomberg reported that the agreements reached in negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi will be a salvation for Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of the Turkish elections, as an agreement to switch the country to paying for Russian gas in rubles will help stabilize the lira and prevent another spike in prices, and Ankara needs to stabilize the economy at a critical moment.
#Details #Erdogans #rivals #Turkish #elections