According to the dictionary of the Royal Spanish Academy, the word ‘recession’ is defined as “the action and effect of withdrawing or regressing”. It is true that the same term is used to describe a depression in the economy, but in this case the meaning describes what is happening with democracy in this part of the world.
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According to the photograph taken a few months ago by Latinobarómetro, less than half of the region’s inhabitants—48 percent—believe that democracy is preferable, a level that contrasts with two-thirds a quarter of a century ago. Apart from the fact that one in six respondents favors an authoritarian government, the most striking thing this time is that 28 percent don’t care who is in power.
Such figures are very similar to those of 2018, the year that preceded an unprecedented series of popular protests in numerous capitals. From this point of view, not so much has changed, despite the fact that in the five years since then a pandemic took place and the so-called ‘pink wave’ appeared, consisting of the arrival of the highest number of left-wing presidents to power.
It is now clear that the turnaround was not accompanied by a return of hope or an improvement in expectations. Hence, there is talk of a “democratic recession” that does not seem to be short-lived.
This has just been pointed out by the Latinobarómetro Corporation, a non-profit entity based in Chile, which since 1995 has been taking the pulse of the region’s inhabitants through surveys carried out in 18 countries. For the 2023 edition, 19,205 personal interviews were applied in 17 States, since the particular conditions of Nicaragua made the exercise impossible.
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The impediments to conducting a survey in the Central American nation —where Daniel Ortega rules with an iron hand in what is a de facto dictatorship— highlight the problems experienced by those latitudes that Winston Churchill described in 1947 as “the worst form of government, with the exception of all the others.” . And it is not just a question of leaders who do not know the rules, but of the very attitude of Latin Americans.
This circumstance becomes fertile ground for the caudillismo, autocracies and populist proposals, which promise easy solutions to meet people’s needs. Therefore, the debate is not necessarily ideological, but starts from the search for approaches that are different from delivering more of the same.
“Complaints for options, plurality and solutions are not expressed verbally, but they are expressed in discontent with politics, distancing from parties, abstentionism, null and white voting, and alternation in power,” says the Latinobarómetro report. In the last five years, 18 votes have taken place that have meant changes of course, from Mexico to the Southern Cone. Colombia has not been immune to this trend either.
the disaster
At the time, the American political scientist Samuel Huntington spoke of the three waves of democracy in the history of the planet. The first took place from the end of the 19th century until the appearance of fascism and Nazism in Europe; the second occurred after the Second World War, but ended with the military dictatorships of the early 1960s; the third started with the Carnation Revolution in Portugal in 1974 and was accentuated with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.
Each of those eras had its expression in Latin America. The most recent one started in 1978 after the elections in which Joaquín Balaguer peacefully handed over command in the Dominican Republic. Gradually, the popular vote would end up being the norm, while the uniformed men returned to their barracks.
However, that transit has been full of shocks. Since 1985, some twenty Latin American presidents have had to leave office before the end of their constitutional term. Others changed the rules to continue in command, reaching extremes such as those of Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela or Ortega in Nicaragua. Additionally, there are factors that degrade confidence in the democratic system.
For Latinobarómetro, the list begins with the personalities that range from imposing re-election or even adjusting the rules to favor the majority party. No less important is corruptionwhich is expressed in the sentences handed down against 21 former presidents in nine countries and the general perception that public money ends up in the pockets of a few.
While that deterioration appears, the living conditions of the population point to stagnation. After the end of the commodity price supercycle that took place in the first part of the 21st century, the boom ended and with it the consolidation of the middle classes and the reduction of poverty.
In this way, ECLAC affirms that the average regional growth between 2014 and 2023 is on track to be less than one percent per year, half the figure reached during the famous ‘lost decade’ of the 80s of the last century. To add insult to injury, contraction and job losses brought by the confinements derived from the covid-19 worsened the distribution of income in the most unequal area of the world.
The bad combination of politics and economics is a breeding ground for discontent, which also encourages other options. Faced with the statement “I wouldn’t mind a non-democratic government coming to power if it solves the problems,” 54 percent of Latin Americans agree, the highest record since 2002, when the issue began to be raised.
It is worth emphasizing that even if more citizens share the idea that in this matter the end justifies the means, the majority —61 percent— flatly reject a military government. Despite what has been said, those who would accept it already amount to 35 percent, the highest figure so far this century.
Among the revelations that attract the most attention, it appears that support for democracy is higher among those over 61 than among those under 25. Young people also support more authoritarianism or are more indifferent to the type of regime, which raises many questions for the future.
Similarities and differences
Such findings are surprising. For Marta Lagos, who directs the Latinobarómetro Corporation, the results show that “democracies have not consolidated imperfectly, but rather evolve in the opposite direction to what was expected”.
What is the explanation? For the Chilean economist, “the malfunctioning of democracy turns out to be its worst disease and it is a mistake to believe that ideology plays a role in this, since neither governments of the right nor of the left respond to the demands of the population.”
Neither governments of the right nor of the left respond to the demands of the population
Within this scenario, alternatives appear that a few years ago would have sounded unreal. “There are countries in the region that would choose a Martian if he came with the promise of solving the problems,” adds Lagos.
If it is about historical responsibilities, the expert assigns the blame for what happened to the elites or the party system, which led to venal governments, incapable of providing good services and providing opportunities. Faced with this deterioration, everything points to more populism and autocracies.
Without a doubt, today, Nayib Bukele, in El Salvador, is the main representative of this category of rulers. His security policy that comes with the prison confinement of about 2 percent of the adult population of the Central American nation has served to cement his popularity and opens the doors for him to run for one more period, despite the fact that the Constitution indicates otherwise.
Something similar is also making a career in Honduras, where Xiomara Castro suspended constitutional guarantees on the grounds of fighting insecurity. And similar approaches are beginning to be seen in other places, with the challenge of crime being the main argument for curtailing freedoms.
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to all these, one of the blows of the pandemic was to expose even more the incompetence of the States in the region. As Marta Lagos says, “what people demand in Latin America resembles the typical expectations of a first world country, while the response of governments is typical of developing nations.”
Obviously, the diagnosis is not the same for everyone. If something characterizes this part of the world, it is heterogeneity. For example, Uruguayans are much more committed to democracy and the rejection of authoritarianism than Guatemalans. Even so, the setback observed in places like Mexico is obvious, where the disillusionment of citizens with the model of electing and being elected is evident.
For Colombia the balance is light and shadow. Although in 2023 support for democracy rose five percentage points, up to 48 percent, satisfaction with it is very low: barely 17 percent. Not only has the drop in this last indicator been 25 points in the last 15 years, but we are below the regional average of 28 percent.
Together with Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela and Panama, ours is one of the five countries with the greatest democratic dissatisfaction, with a figure of 80 percent. This reading is complemented by the fact that only 13 percent of Colombians believe that political parties work well and that only a third consider that they are key to a democracy, levels that are well below the regional average.
So things, more than half of those surveyed in Colombia would not mind an undemocratic government coming to power, if it solves the problems. Although we are here in the middle of the sample, the general picture of the loss of democratic values is evident and should ring a warning bell.
That is why the regional elections next October are so important, not only to reiterate the importance of the popular vote, but also to allow the arrival of honest figures who promote positive changes. It is also essential that the government of Gustavo Petro respect the independence of powers, since both the Legislative and the Judiciary have the duty to fulfill their duties and counterbalance the Executive.
And although there is still a long time to start thinking about the 2026 presidential elections, everything indicates that people who will fly the flags of undesirable ‘isms’ will appear at the event. For this reason, given the eventual arrival of candidates with populist or autocratic tendencies, it is necessary that there are candidates committed to defending institutions and reforms that benefit the population as a whole.
This is the only way to prevent the “democratic recession” that Latinobarómetro talks about from deepening in Colombia. As the entity points out, “it is called a recession because it is a negative period in history that, although it can last several years, and even a decade, is temporary.”
But accelerating the exit from the pothole is a responsibility that falls on each town. In the end, the challenge is to confirm the maxim that here too “democracy is the best system of government, except for all the others.”
RICARDO AVILA PINTO
Senior analyst
On Twitter: @ravilapinto
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