The Debt refinancing will increase the interest payments of Spainto about 0.4 percentage points in 2027, while in other countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) It will be below the 0.2 percentage points of GDP, according to the Global Debt Report report, published this Thursday.
The OECD said that Spain will face greater vulnerability By then, since the debt that expires in 2027 exceeds 15% of the current GDP and the expiration of the debt issued in 2024 exceeds that of the debt that expires in more than 1.5 percentage points.
However, Spain is not the only country that will be seen in that situation within two years. The United States, France and the United Kingdom face the same problems.
In it OECD setthe increase in interest payments derived from the refinancing of the debt will vary depending on the proportion of fixed -type debt that Venza in relation to GDP. It will also influence the difference between the types in force in the market and those of the debt that it comes by then.
Difficult panorama for debt markets
The OECD warned in its Thursday report that debt markets around the world face a difficult panorama in 2025. Throughout 2024, it was observed that Bond yields rose in several important marketsdespite the Interest rate drop.
At the same time, there was a Soberano and Business Breading reboundat major costs, which can eventually be translated into a restriction of indebtedness capacity, “at a time when investment needs are greater than ever,” according to the OECD.
The agency pointed out that the indebtedness of the 2008 crisis and the pandemic was used to facilitate recovery, but they have set aside “many long -term investment needs.”
In 2024, the debt of sovereign and corporate bonds together exceeded the 100 billion dollars (about 92 billion euros) worldwide. For this year, the OECD forecasts an increase in this indebtedness, both from countries and companies.
In the case of the Sovereign debt issuanceit is expected that in the OECD countries the 17 billion dollars (15.62 billion euros), above 16 billion dollars (14.7 billion euros) of 2024. Thursday’s report also reflected an increase in debt weight on GDP. In the OECD as a whole, it was in 82% in 2023, to rise to 84% in 2024, with an 85% prognosis in 2025, about 59 billion dollars (54 billion euros).
The current volume of debt in circulation does not reflect the current cost of new loans, as the OECD warned in its report. The debt in circulation, issued in the past, has a lower cost than current types And, according to the agency, it is also below those that come in the future.
As the debt is refining, the costs are increasing and currently spending on interest payment exceeds public spending in defense in the OECD as a whole.
On the other hand, the OECD said in its report that the countries seek to improve their competitiveness Through infrastructure investments, climatic transition, digitalization and artificial intelligence, and increase defense expenditure. All this will require “sustained efforts to use debt markets in the most strategic way possible.”
In this context, it is not ruled out that many governments have to apply a “combination of greater fiscal prudence, structural reforms to boost growth and greater efficiency in public spending.”
Household participation
The private homes and investments are assuming debt possession from which central banks emerge. Within the OECD economies, the central banks went from having 29% of the debt in circulation in 2021 to 19% in 2024. In the same period, the Household participation grew from 5% to 11%. On the other hand, possession among foreign investors also increased, from 29% to 34% between 2021 and 2024.
In the case of Spain, the OECD highlighted the Retailers participationwhich in July 2024 had 40% of the total treasure letters in circulation.
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