PT’s advantage dropped 2 percentage points in 2 days; in total votes, Lula has 49% against 45% for Bolsonaro
Datafolha survey carried out from October 28 to 29, 2022 shows the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (EN) in the lead of the race for the Palácio do Planalto, with 52% of the intentions of valid votes in the 2nd round. The president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) appears with 48%.
The result in valid votes includes only the intentions attributed to a candidate, excluding blank and null votes. That’s how the TSE will release the results on Sunday (October 30). In total votes, Lula has 49% against 45%. White and null are 4% and 2% could not answer.
The difference between the leaders of the electoral race varied by 2 percentage points in 2 days. In the company’s latest survey, carried out from October 25 to 27, Lula had 53% of the valid votes and 49% of the total votes. Bolsonaro scored 47% and 44%, respectively.
8,320 voters were interviewed in 253 municipalities in 26 federation units and in the Federal District. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval. The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number BR-08297/2022. It cost BRL 617,974.00, amount paid by the Folha de S. Paulo and for Rede Globo.
DIFFERENCES IN SURVEYS
This presidential election is proving challenging for companies doing research. There are many results indicating divergent signals. It was difficult to know what the real trend is at this moment.
It is important to say that all the surveys are correct, each one within the methodology chosen. Each system can have advantages and disadvantages, depending on the situation they want to determine.
In 2018, for example, there was much “embarrassed vote” in Jair Bolsonaro. Some face-to-face surveys had difficulty capturing this type of preference. Telephone polls, on the other hand, gave more comfort to part of the voters who opted for the then presidential candidate for the PSL (today, Bolsonaro is in the PL).
It is still unclear what impact each methodology has on data collection. But it is already known that in-person polls tend to have a result pointing to a looser leadership of Lula. And telephone surveys (especially automated and neutral ones, with a recording asking the questions, like the PowerDate) tend to show a tighter contest.
In the United States, face-to-face polling has not been used for decades to measure voting intentions at the national level. The extreme polarized environment hinders data collection when the interviewer and the interviewee are face to face.
In short, it is important to note that it is not a question of there being an error in one or another research. They are different methodologies. At the end of this campaign it will be possible to know which system was most appropriate to point out trends in the current Brazilian political moment.
RESEARCH COMPANIES
Several research companies in Brazil call themselves “institutes”, which can give the idea that they are philanthropic entities or linked to some educational institution. In reality, they are all private for-profit companies. What differentiates them, in some cases, is the portfolio of clients they have and the rules for accepting certain contracts.
PodeData, for example, only carries out research for the private sector (including studies commissioned by the digital newspaper Power 360) and does not accept contracts from government agencies, politicians, candidates or parties. Datafolha (a company belonging to the group that owns Folha de S.Paulo, UOL and the bank PagBank) does not work for parties or politicians, but accepts government contracts. The other companies do not have any type of restriction.
O ipecderived from the old Ibope, is not called “Institute”. Ipec stands for Intelligence and Consulting Research. It is a commercial company that, like the former Ibope, continued with several contracts with Grupo Globo, with its research being publicized on the broadcaster’s television news. Ipec has no restrictions on accepting contracts with governments, parties or politicians. The command is from the statistician Márcia Cavallari, who made a career at Ibope and is now the CEO of Ipec.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. access the Research Aggregator clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, Click here.
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